TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$303,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$319,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,492 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7928…f432backed No0c171,980$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b92…1761backed Yes62c4,631$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.431580%12 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes20c2,578$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.478055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b5…bbfbbacked No8c2,365$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb75…446dbacked Yes26c2,158$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.721625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed No26c2,117$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.361435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed No53c1,977$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed No24c1,950$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes19c1,890$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.777462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes60c1,674$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.1330837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8503…6d62backed No6c1,598$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b4…aa00backed No7c1,512$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed No78c1,440$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+64.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No53c1,423$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.19110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes14c1,384$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.171450%7 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+73.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x432c…e67abacked No6c1,275$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No2c1,252$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.85722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb03f…c592backed Yes31c1,203$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes52c1,183$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+93.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57e1…9a45backed No9c1,083$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No21c1,051$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.251024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked Yes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c985.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.85327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c960$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea9a…65d8backed No5c922.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb911…8bb6backed Yes27c859.94$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+263.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked No6c833.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes25c832.54$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.312326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed9…11f0backed No7c820.8$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes37c780.66$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.598639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d1…ed25backed Yes30c719.9$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.22060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No5c660.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.44120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No68c644.1$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4396654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x45c6…0123backed Yes32c631.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.36911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-64.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes68c627.3$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes18c620.93$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.9311839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes62c607.76$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.182347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce83…5b97backed No34c593.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No4c591.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No4c577.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.317518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83b…cf86backed Yes56c573.17$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7f…6accbacked No75c545.97$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc302…f388backed No7c538.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No50c538.06$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.966640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b4e…93a3backed Yes45c524.53$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.661250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf24f…cfb7backed No15c515.57$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.09742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+134.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4954…cb01backed No5c514.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.41302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ee…5e2bbacked No6c494.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5c…a68abacked No73c467.08$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No43c464.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No5c450.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.051074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa0…72d6backed No65c444.15$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.71855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes49c415.59$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed Yes6c400.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.01850%4 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+313.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c400$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404261.9%26 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes8c393.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.496126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes25c388.84$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.963818.4%7 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No48c388.34$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes38c377.61$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.211346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked No24c375$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.13728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…affebacked No7c362.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes52c355.01$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.41353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed No63c347.14$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2181250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes19c342.57$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.126437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bf…901dbacked No6c341.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb051…2481backed No80c313.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked Yes6c313.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.071526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+117.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ab4…e073backed Yes23c313.37$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.56752.2%35 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+61.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed No64c313$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.32850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No5c308.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.541723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49e7…d352backed No5c305.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x833c…5c40backed No7c304.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1377851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No46c299.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1383237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a00…60aabacked Yes69c290.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.431560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd53…8dd1backed No78c290.15$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.11030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-49.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86b4…0d68backed No4c285.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc327…a208backed No71c281.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c97…fa05backed No75c280$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f90…517dbacked No66c280$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No5c263.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.06175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No68c261.79$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.41827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No6c261.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No5c256.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.631711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b3…cfd0backed Yes21c247.84$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.061233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdaf…02d8backed Yes17c241.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.19540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+139.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3961backed No63c239.05$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.074736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…5d51backed No6c237.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed No46c231$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.936442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0d9…8483backed No78c230.71$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.952369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No70c223.88$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.591250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ed…a533backed Yes56c219.76$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No22c217.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe11d…2770backed No6c215.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes36c206.83$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.162425%6 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+101.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b05…2317backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed No45c199.72$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.916028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.