Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a68c8ec37bcd702979b5fa03883191767f896e77a0930479e0d9bfbb5933997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $319,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7928…f432backed No | 0c | 171,980$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 62c | 4,631$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.43 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 20c | 2,578$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.47 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…bbfbbacked No | 8c | 2,365$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,158$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 26c | 2,117$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…6f15backed No | 53c | 1,977$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed No | 24c | 1,950$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 19c | 1,890$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.77 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 1,674$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.13 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…6d62backed No | 6c | 1,598$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…aa00backed No | 7c | 1,512$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed No | 78c | 1,440$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 53c | 1,423$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.19 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 14c | 1,384$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x432c…e67abacked No | 6c | 1,275$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 2c | 1,252$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…c592backed Yes | 31c | 1,203$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 52c | 1,183$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…9a45backed No | 9c | 1,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 1,051$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.25 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 985.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 960$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…65d8backed No | 5c | 922.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Yes | 27c | 859.94$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked No | 6c | 833.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 25c | 832.54$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.31 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed9…11f0backed No | 7c | 820.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 37c | 780.66$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.59 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed Yes | 30c | 719.9$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 660.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 68c | 644.1$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…0123backed Yes | 32c | 631.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 68c | 627.3$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.81 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 18c | 620.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.93 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 62c | 607.76$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 34c | 593.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No | 4c | 591.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 577.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…cf86backed Yes | 56c | 573.17$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…6accbacked No | 75c | 545.97$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed No | 7c | 538.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 50c | 538.06$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.96 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…93a3backed Yes | 45c | 524.53$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 15c | 515.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…cb01backed No | 5c | 514.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…5e2bbacked No | 6c | 494.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…a68abacked No | 73c | 467.08$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 43c | 464.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 450.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 65c | 444.15$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 49c | 415.59$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 6c | 400.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +313.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 393.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.49 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 25c | 388.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.96 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 48c | 388.34$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 38c | 377.61$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 24c | 375$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…affebacked No | 7c | 362.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 52c | 355.01$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed No | 63c | 347.14$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 19c | 342.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.12 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…901dbacked No | 6c | 341.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…2481backed No | 80c | 313.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 6c | 313.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 23c | 313.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 64c | 313$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 5c | 308.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e7…d352backed No | 5c | 305.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…5c40backed No | 7c | 304.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 46c | 300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a00…60aabacked Yes | 69c | 290.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…8dd1backed No | 78c | 290.15$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b4…0d68backed No | 4c | 285.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…a208backed No | 71c | 281.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…fa05backed No | 75c | 280$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 66c | 280$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 5c | 263.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 68c | 261.79$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 261.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 256.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…cfd0backed Yes | 21c | 247.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…02d8backed Yes | 17c | 241.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 63c | 239.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…5d51backed No | 6c | 237.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 46c | 231$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 78c | 230.71$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 70c | 223.88$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ed…a533backed Yes | 56c | 219.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 22c | 217.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…2770backed No | 6c | 215.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 36c | 206.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…2317backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 45c | 199.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.