TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa5cc…feb0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+189.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44%+$110.75
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,085
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$975Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$975.46
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,023Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,023
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$203
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.87
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$25.22
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$133.39
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$200.51
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,474Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,474
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$200.39
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+4,393.5%+$1,142.31
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+91%+$181.95
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$104.63
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$901Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+131%+$1,180.59
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.22
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+27%+$54
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$361
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.87
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.66
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$164.65
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+106.5%+$551.12
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$156.67
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$79.67
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,430Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$460.38
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.45
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,077Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$1,194.8
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+46%+$552.03
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$874Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$874.46
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$134.78
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,213.21
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+93.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$78.18
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$25.26
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+371.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+371.7%+$82.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.