Commodities · resolved market
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab2df0df3738ecc24fc626e49df39948d86d42019279eeec6958c771b96ffe5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 9,447$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 1c | 5,948$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc265…50a0backed Yes | 3c | 4,877$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 15c | 4,407$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,148$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,054$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 74c | 3,507$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 13c | 3,100$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 29c | 3,081$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.4 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…01e9backed Yes | 2c | 2,551$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +245.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,368$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 1c | 2,099$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,387$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 4c | 1,268$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,262$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…611bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,102$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,075$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…045ebacked Yes | 21c | 960.75$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 23c | 951.54$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.54 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 34c | 885.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 807.96$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 11c | 629.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed No | 75c | 626.67$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 79c | 612.82$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.47 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7932…5b38backed Yes | 25c | 605.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 2c | 591.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 6c | 591.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 588.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 2c | 578.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 19c | 506.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 27c | 447.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 77c | 437.2$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 402.45$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 25c | 392.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7d…7f5cbacked Yes | 31c | 390.31$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 375.68$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked Yes | 28c | 368.52$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 20c | 311.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 77c | 242.95$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 19c | 235.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed Yes | 22c | 231.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 76c | 227.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d29…71c2backed Yes | 24c | 187.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…d9c4backed Yes | 26c | 185.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Yes | 32c | 182.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 25c | 181.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 79c | 168.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b7…ef16backed No | 75c | 149.83$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 148.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No | 68c | 146.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 144.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…eec2backed No | 73c | 137.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 27c | 133.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed No | 76c | 126.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 67c | 120.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 116.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 114.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked No | 66c | 108.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 64c | 108.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 107.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 103.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…92f8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…add1backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…eeefbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…4eb9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d68bbacked No | 67c | 73.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 18c | 70.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…3741backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…0e38backed No | 77c | 68.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…aa4bbacked No | 74c | 67.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…a5f4backed Yes | 25c | 64.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…3dbcbacked Yes | 29c | 62.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 22c | 58.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…509bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…e696backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5c…7cf7backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…fe91backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…6f38backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…895dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…01d9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…0de2backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…fb6cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…8d6abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…6bb7backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 23c | 49.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…9ba8backed Yes | 23c | 47.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed Yes | 30c | 44.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…702dbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 44.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed No | 75c | 42.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.