Commodities · resolved market
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186733e78213058e9e5bcb47085f6fffdf491f72a8e233cbc6f2fa107090f4b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 4c | 14,963$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.7 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 29c | 13,183$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 8,125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 7,711$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.35 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 5c | 6,895$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.25 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 5c | 5,860$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.43 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 10c | 4,767$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,283.27 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.54per pick | 26cpaid | +264.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 24c | 4,527$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.56 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 4,252$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 3,414$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.19 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 2c | 3,026$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 28c | 2,960$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.97 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 67c | 2,687$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.39 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…b115backed Yes | 78c | 2,533$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 2c | 2,531$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.59 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 51c | 2,478$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.69 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…e56cbacked No | 27c | 2,321$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +209.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 19c | 2,291$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.28 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 18c | 2,209$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 3c | 2,199$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,979$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 49c | 1,934$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 5c | 1,918$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked No | 74c | 1,862$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 4c | 1,821$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 37c | 1,768$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.24 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,666$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.74 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 1,458$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed No | 29c | 1,386$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.59 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 11c | 1,327$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.83 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 1,266$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 1,217$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.04 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…045ebacked No | 8c | 1,188$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 74c | 1,167$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,135$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 4c | 1,133$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.33 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 10c | 1,030$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.37 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 20c | 980.2$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.22 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…2c87backed No | 10c | 974.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 946.56$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 879$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.07 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 75c | 807$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 4c | 800$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 6c | 706.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 20c | 697.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…7fe5backed No | 80c | 667$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked Yes | 5c | 629.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 12c | 622.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 5c | 604.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 5c | 594.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed No | 10c | 528.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 58c | 524.82$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 8c | 457.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…01e9backed Yes | 5c | 441.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +245.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 406$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 7c | 400.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 3c | 392.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.68 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 22c | 385.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 382$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 55c | 348$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 6c | 302.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8033…c774backed No | 13c | 278.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +287%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5d…6ed9backed Yes | 12c | 226.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8054backed Yes | 19c | 224.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 58c | 215.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 23c | 215.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed No | 11c | 212.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 9c | 198.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 12c | 195$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 25c | 181.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 170.05$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 17c | 170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 15c | 168.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 51c | 165.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 72c | 159.39$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 66c | 144.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 25c | 144.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 37c | 139$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 136.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 80c | 134$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…79e7backed No | 10c | 130.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 25c | 120.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed No | 18c | 117.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 9c | 117.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 12c | 115.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed No | 15c | 108.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 14c | 89.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked No | 22c | 89.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 72.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…36afbacked No | 17c | 69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 78c | 51.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 50c | 50.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed Yes | 55c | 47.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 35c | 47.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?this page
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.