Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998fb09e05a44d1153456d983d6e47d6d8674b7f3c2d8c6f8a777107d104f909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $261,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 7,952$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.77 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 10c | 6,630$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed No | 0c | 4,845$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 4,598$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 45c | 4,492$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.59 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 3c | 4,248$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 6c | 4,231$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,969.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 34c | 3,915$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.36 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 3,846$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 3,475$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 28c | 3,260$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 76c | 3,250$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.42 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 64c | 3,206$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.08 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 31c | 2,903$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 3c | 2,740$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 23c | 2,722$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.98 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.54per pick | 26cpaid | +264.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 76c | 2,633$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.03 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 32c | 2,446$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.68 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…611bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,162$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,157$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ce…ed1abacked No | 2c | 2,138$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 74c | 2,001$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.79 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 6c | 2,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 32c | 1,988$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 34c | 1,943$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.47 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,875$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.07 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked No | 29c | 1,778$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 45c | 1,659$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.47 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,516$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.49 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 1,509$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.98 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 9c | 1,465$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…e0cbbacked No | 1c | 1,422$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 76c | 1,374$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 1,226$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.87 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed No | 10c | 1,196$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,182$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.87 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 1,119$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.72 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 21c | 1,090$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.06 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 64c | 1,066$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.86 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 8c | 1,042$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 62c | 999.97$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 42c | 950$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 941.76$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.81 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 57c | 906.36$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.47 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7932…5b38backed Yes | 57c | 870.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 17c | 855.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 838.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.94 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 11c | 834.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 25c | 819.3$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 20c | 766.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 72c | 728$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…045ebacked No | 31c | 708.33$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 66c | 708.11$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 661.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed No | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed No | 2c | 642.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 2c | 608$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 7c | 596.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.66 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 14c | 561.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 561$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f95…7821backed Yes | 72c | 557.21$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 10c | 541$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 62c | 519.83$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 514.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.59 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed No | 41c | 482.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…36afbacked Yes | 6c | 480$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 67c | 456.61$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84b…55e1backed Yes | 9c | 405.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 55c | 378.53$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed Yes | 32c | 332.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed No | 31c | 332.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7d…7f5cbacked Yes | 67c | 328.58$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 68c | 321.41$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 31c | 320.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.86 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6490…3ba1backed No | 4c | 297.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 50c | 295.64$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 290.88$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.55 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…79e7backed Yes | 69c | 284.63$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 271.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 58c | 265.49$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…afcebacked Yes | 69c | 263.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 43c | 261.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 255$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 65c | 254.83$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 5c | 253.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.3 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 39c | 247.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 60c | 234.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed Yes | 65c | 231.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 27c | 227.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 221$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…0acfbacked No | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…08fdbacked Yes | 65c | 212$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 9c | 210.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.83 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 9c | 205.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…dcadbacked Yes | 28c | 205.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.