TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,936
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,936 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd48e…38bfbacked Yes18c6,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes20c3,000$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.953423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c6f…469fbacked Yes31c1,865$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed No79c1,471$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.78771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed No69c852$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.12850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed No69c681$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.112157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes48c402.53$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.54131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c399.98$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8247328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5cc…feb0backed No78c332.62$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.623100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x628e…4580backed No69c332$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes8c323.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.862814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x517b…be02backed Yes22c321.28$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f1…595ebacked No79c292.64$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa536…0190backed Yes24c291.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7350%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc484…8b5dbacked Yes28c283.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-80.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23a8…0586backed No54c279.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.64988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+55.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed No75c257.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.981338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes21c256.25$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.831540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460c…d306backed Yes20c256.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6bb…a47fbacked No79c253.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b54…76eabacked Yes5c242.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c225.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.364429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ca…0f21backed No78c220.79$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.992147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed No76c199.98$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.991553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes22c197.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4911924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf981…d9abbacked Yes42c185.65$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes47c164.74$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.27714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c146.22$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb2…75e4backed Yes23c128.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00d…470ebacked Yes27c124.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0750%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9752…8087backed No71c123.55$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5291…5b15backed Yes19c113.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No57c110.62$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.19753.6%52 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes28c108.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.153568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd30…685bbacked Yes22c107.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6aa…132abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd130…2a7cbacked Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-58.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4348…d8dfbacked No72c99.97$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbecf…0f51backed No64c94.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfca…9722backed No61c89.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01d6…6049backed Yes24c89.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No54c86.25$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.852941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No74c86.06$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2611184.7%94 W · 17 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c2f…845ebacked Yes27c84.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebfa…aed3backed Yes25c84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes19c83.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.214721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d4…3156backed Yes25c80.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2d…f6c3backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05fe…b7c3backed No79c72.36$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked No55c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No29c67.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.952748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2935…d27abacked Yes45c66.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e6…8f4bbacked Yes24c63.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…578fbacked Yes38c62.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes24c61.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.667232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.154626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes35c59.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.852133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…d994backed Yes21c58.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa994…19a6backed Yes44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No72c54.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.442142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa265…a9dfbacked Yes43c50.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…29c3backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…867abacked Yes21c49.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3370%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No54c47.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.579244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24da…0b29backed No65c46.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x333b…d8d7backed Yes24c45.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…f9adbacked Yes32c45.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes35c45.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.642951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d2…9355backed Yes23c43.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3908…8fddbacked Yes44c42.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed No79c42.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.121060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No67c41.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.477969.6%55 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe900…28eebacked Yes40c41.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0851…1de8backed Yes40c41.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…cd18backed No80c38.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.93100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No70c38.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.393636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2c…f968backed Yes32c37.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Yes44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed No64c34.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.315646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68e…5620backed Yes44c33.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0daf…d779backed Yes56c33.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb93f…6ca8backed Yes48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8cd…2028backed Yes39c30.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed No62c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32be…2cddbacked No70c27.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.426100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+52.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4a6…db37backed Yes39c26.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed No55c25.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41fc…0f2abacked No78c25.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8862…bbf5backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f70…312bbacked No76c22.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.413148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceae…2f49backed No62c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62de…39fbbacked No75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c9…b2e5backed Yes47c21.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb3a…7f61backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.