Movies · resolved market
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d86d3aa882cd7c5464677da0ddb0292082d5da4e9f704ce3937f791b3c8cf4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ad2…b7e0backed No | 0c | 20,160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…c035backed No | 1c | 15,247$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9e…7d24backed No | 0c | 11,903$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked No | 1c | 2,690$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…909cbacked No | 1c | 2,511$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fb…f978backed No | 1c | 1,375$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…fdd2backed No | 2c | 993.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…1e55backed No | 2c | 451.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c72…015abacked No | 11c | 280.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3287…7058backed No | 16c | 151.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 132.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed No | 16c | 100.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8b…1fb1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…2e36backed No | 48c | 92.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…3219backed Yes | 76c | 87.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…04cfbacked Yes | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed No | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?this page
- Will A-Train die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.