TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4bb…a993backed No77c4,443$3,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.093568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf5f…c035backed Yes12c3,180$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes20c2,824$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.614015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a43…979bbacked Yes47c2,823$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes22c2,521$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.244721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed No79c2,143$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…6b0cbacked Yes28c1,956$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa23f…14babacked Yes14c1,750$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.37633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c1,547$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.891,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf81c…4540backed Yes68c1,478$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bc7…3210backed Yes22c1,292$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes22c1,259$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.56333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed No67c1,251$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.555044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed No77c1,176$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb64a…e66abacked Yes51c1,108$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23a8…0586backed No55c1,041$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.45988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+55.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0201…fcd3backed Yes10c949.47$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976d…99f7backed Yes35c939$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No62c829$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.982133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c804.9$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4423130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd39b…43c0backed Yes39c733.2$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b09…3b3fbacked Yes18c606.52$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes10c600.19$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.623423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9138…0690backed No78c600$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes27c587.26$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.84139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…53c6backed Yes11c522.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945f…80e5backed Yes41c518$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked Yes24c507.5$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+287.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No29c505.16$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.162254.5%12 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+88.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked No74c462.48$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd611…d04bbacked Yes10c452.24$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060d…f510backed Yes25c410.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff43…dbafbacked Yes36c385.3$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x363f…ee04backed Yes15c383.82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5e…909cbacked Yes26c378.86$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4690%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27ac…a07fbacked Yes38c378.07$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…e1efbacked Yes6c361.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa62…d3d7backed Yes28c351.24$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No55c340.9$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.072748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c07…fe00backed Yes34c301.84$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe69…42e1backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked No51c286.18$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.83875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No58c284.09$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.521747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2321…8e59backed Yes11c276.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes14c268.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.933636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4351…916abacked Yes10c261.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682e…70bdbacked Yes8c259.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d6…6049backed Yes6c251.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65d…a27dbacked Yes24c248.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes5c246.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.073917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb538…bd42backed Yes40c242.37$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes7c240$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.532751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2148…5c59backed Yes25c235.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x573a…693abacked Yes46c223.64$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9550%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed No71c222.96$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.14955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes33c217.88$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.579244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafc9…4a0ebacked Yes24c211$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes18c210.49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.251549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f6…4f56backed Yes52c209.15$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdda9…2281backed No72c208.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes21c202.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.31020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43a1…7163backed Yes49c202.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No46c201.78$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.3511129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No43c200$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1154131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes8c199.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f7…9c34backed Yes25c199.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes26c189.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes27c180$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c179.01$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1836538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes48c176.32$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.63742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d6…40d0backed Yes10c175.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5470%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78e1…b675backed Yes23c175.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes7c165.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0811924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28aa…150fbacked No62c162.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed No22c161.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.324100%4 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+365.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes25c160$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x333b…d8d7backed Yes7c157.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe897…16d2backed Yes10c155.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1905…b59fbacked No64c151.02$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes13c150.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.635234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes25c149.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.042951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf809…b391backed Yes49c139.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8ee…63d8backed No75c138.26$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f4…f7ccbacked Yes26c136$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes27c133.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c8…d66bbacked Yes23c133.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d8b…1fb1backed Yes14c130.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4490%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6200…04cfbacked Yes35c130$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7438…b741backed Yes16c127.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7315…1232backed Yes23c127.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes24c127.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.039021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No64c124.83$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.892142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x935b…8f4fbacked Yes33c121.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7738…76a4backed Yes25c120.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.23915.4%6 W · 33 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6fbc…deedbacked Yes21c117.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.