Movies · resolved market
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519f632d1c3f0324d2b5d3068812d4bb69ea14e8fedfcd6a2389e63a08fa6649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 12c | 3,200$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.64 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,773$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 18c | 1,340$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.39 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de6…03d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,321$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 1,037$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 4c | 949.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ff…b2babacked Yes | 2c | 805.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 78c | 619.12$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 78c | 514$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 22c | 514$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 7c | 472.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0201…fcd3backed Yes | 10c | 469.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…909cbacked Yes | 15c | 419.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 78c | 321.78$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 295.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…1296backed Yes | 12c | 279.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 278.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a6…db37backed Yes | 19c | 269.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 252.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 74c | 240.54$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…8b5dbacked Yes | 16c | 200.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0b…6465backed Yes | 7c | 200.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e09…3250backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…867abacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 194.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 22c | 167.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 13c | 158.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5291…5b15backed Yes | 10c | 148.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3287…7058backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…88a3backed Yes | 7c | 142.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 16c | 126.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…589fbacked Yes | 8c | 126.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 15c | 117.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…279bbacked Yes | 14c | 109.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…7221backed Yes | 19c | 108.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96e…164ebacked Yes | 17c | 100.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd130…2a7cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…35f0backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…26c7backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 15c | 96.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd20…b83dbacked No | 80c | 85.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 84.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9355backed Yes | 18c | 81.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cca…60acbacked Yes | 19c | 79.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…45bebacked Yes | 19c | 78.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f8…1810backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 71c | 75.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a78…8457backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda36…0911backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…af60backed No | 56c | 61.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 20c | 53.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed No | 77c | 50.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 24c | 41.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 68c | 26.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed No | 49c | 23.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 66c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…49d8backed No | 75c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…d7afbacked No | 79c | 13.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…7163backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?this page
- Will A-Train die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.