TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa43d…00f4backed No35c10,938$3,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,835.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23a8…0586backed Yes60c4,885$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.08988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+55.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No24c4,366$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.1614015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd82f…5bd9backed No6c3,832$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No29c3,107$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.254721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes72c2,380$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.943568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ec4…271bbacked No7c1,805$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes78c1,663$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.74771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes59c1,417$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes73c1,222$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.824131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked No49c1,192$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd75c…69b6backed No42c1,041$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce0e…fb2ebacked No42c1,021$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.6380%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked No42c1,000$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.87475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2148…4381backed Yes63c927.98$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x001f…9cb5backed Yes61c853.4$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefe…ad3dbacked No3c840.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked No14c840$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.63256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed No36c833.45$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.541338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No14c818$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed No5c800.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bc7…3210backed Yes44c799.41$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.92757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9967…09cabacked Yes61c756.22$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc7…19b7backed No53c756.12$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No17c674.91$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8123130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes49c655$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.052347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No51c655$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.05944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb8…7b06backed No14c616.64$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.77425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3d…90e6backed Yes61c614.78$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes79c604.66$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.714429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7218…8b34backed Yes62c577.9$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4122…5c11backed Yes59c577.67$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.013100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65d…a27dbacked Yes57c561.27$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked No46c557.83$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.47875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x032a…1cf8backed No21c534.72$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No26c533$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.583043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked No41c525.78$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.573625%9 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3504…0131backed No31c525.23$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked No26c520$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50618.2%5 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked No7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No19c498.76$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.242142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ea…2ddfbacked No16c498.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7315…1232backed Yes67c493.36$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc9…63b2backed No46c479.03$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c0…4314backed No11c469.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No29c448.22$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.063636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64c…13aabacked No35c430.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked No46c430.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d8…48b7backed No18c428.01$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeddb…b8d7backed Yes70c426.32$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed Yes70c426.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bf03backed No47c422.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No29c416.4$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed No14c415.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.781020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No11c400.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.932666.4%17 W · 249 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No37c399.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c0b…27d5backed No30c397.78$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73ad…0c73backed Yes58c365.9$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a33…3736backed No27c364.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bc…152abacked No47c359.48$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d8b…1fb1backed No25c356.4$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5390%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da0…acbabacked No14c354.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0127…e653backed No44c350$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No13c347.61$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.061,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8192…0664backed No8c347.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9210%0 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b09…3b3fbacked No26c346.38$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb82…0318backed Yes60c346.06$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.166100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc461…1b95backed No29c342.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5423…7c57backed No19c342.16$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad5…9034backed No6c337.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb8…cee0backed No20c336.34$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Yes68c330.57$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.072240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3137…2102backed No42c324.81$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6200…04cfbacked No30c321.44$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9198…6b2fbacked Yes65c297.11$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3d…20e6backed No42c296.32$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf7c…d0a9backed No34c295.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7738…76a4backed Yes76c295.05$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.893915.4%6 W · 33 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd86d…ecf8backed Yes68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes71c282.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.831241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No13c279.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.233423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf0…3221backed Yes79c279$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes71c278.98$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No8c278$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed No40c270.41$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes75c267.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.753100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52109.5%20 W · 190 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked No42c249.28$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x009f…669ebacked No31c248.32$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x573a…693abacked No48c247.13$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6250%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc45d…9e87backed No44c244.98$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1def…2e16backed Yes58c243.58$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe804…419bbacked Yes73c243.01$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No17c239.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.761549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No23c239.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.311924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…5f2ebacked No6c235.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05fe…b7c3backed No44c226.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3287…7058backed No18c225.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe96e…164ebacked No28c217.62$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.