Movies · resolved market
Will A-Train die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61ddfb24e1de2c1f0137a43e3a7031fe56ecec3027fb47ecb2f2cd00bf4dfeb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,096$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd534…621bbacked No | 4c | 551.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…609abacked No | 4c | 509.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 31c | 385$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed No | 31c | 356$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 31c | 355$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…5aa6backed No | 3c | 334.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 3c | 314.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 8c | 201.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will A-Train die in "The Boys: Season 5"?this page
- Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.