Movies · resolved market
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88f33504235eac071d6e85dcaa4705de924f1696e0314c3916f3221eed8d9df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c88…1433backed Yes | 6c | 8,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,338$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.67 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…c035backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 14c | 1,688$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 15c | 1,655$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,466$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.65 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 77c | 1,291$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,243$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…dbfabacked Yes | 13c | 657.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 79c | 565.55$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 15c | 519$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9c…6999backed Yes | 20c | 509.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 15c | 485$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 15c | 470$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…909cbacked Yes | 19c | 469.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…5cfabacked Yes | 27c | 331.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…cc38backed Yes | 5c | 325.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…b22ebacked Yes | 8c | 305.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 8c | 294.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0b…6465backed Yes | 7c | 292.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…d04bbacked Yes | 16c | 291.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Yes | 5c | 284.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96e…164ebacked Yes | 43c | 276.42$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 8c | 255.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…882abacked Yes | 9c | 224.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 9c | 212.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…f0e5backed Yes | 7c | 207.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 8c | 197.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 12c | 192.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 18c | 173$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…9740backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed No | 77c | 139.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 139.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed Yes | 12c | 138.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e35…ee3abacked Yes | 8c | 131.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…16d2backed Yes | 13c | 130.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked Yes | 18c | 120.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 12c | 113.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 17c | 109$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…1dbebacked Yes | 26c | 108.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 19c | 103.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…6461backed Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 13c | 93.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 22c | 88.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb2…75e4backed Yes | 18c | 84.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 78.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda36…0911backed No | 79c | 63.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7c…d0a9backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 22c | 55.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…05aebacked Yes | 23c | 48.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 46.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 79c | 40.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…d7afbacked No | 77c | 35.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 79c | 32.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…7163backed No | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…becebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 79c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?this page
- Will A-Train die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.