Movies · resolved market
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eade8baf6bcc374990691d639c80fc4c3d858462d3c3c594d0e69c5f6423080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 14c | 2,049$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.52 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,436$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe662…8954backed Yes | 6c | 1,185$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 5c | 1,103$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 77c | 838.59$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 78c | 685.77$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19b…7baabacked Yes | 16c | 627.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Yes | 21c | 624.18$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…d306backed Yes | 7c | 605.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 20c | 531$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 80c | 531$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 529.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…8dbbbacked Yes | 20c | 494.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19a…3808backed Yes | 19c | 479.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 463.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…909cbacked Yes | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…6328backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 358.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5291…5b15backed Yes | 9c | 347.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…7b06backed Yes | 10c | 336.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9c…6999backed Yes | 30c | 320.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 80c | 313.91$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…882abacked Yes | 15c | 275.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0b…6465backed Yes | 6c | 251.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 15c | 240.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 239.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 219.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 9c | 213.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 187.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 179.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3287…7058backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 76c | 132.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 20c | 113.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…470ebacked Yes | 19c | 111.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe96e…164ebacked Yes | 20c | 108.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…0da7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…26c7backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f8…1810backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…de06backed Yes | 25c | 79.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 78c | 79.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 17c | 78.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935b…8f4fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…8a68backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 34c | 42.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked No | 80c | 41.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed No | 78c | 30.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…becebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…9146backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 78c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9633backed No | 80c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?this page
- Will A-Train die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No won
- Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.