TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6fbc…deed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
473
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 52 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT40245.8%184 W · 218 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 402 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$23.4
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
LoL: Team Heretics vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$13.09
LoL: Team Heretics vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.11
LoL: Team Heretics vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winnerbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.66
LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winnerbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.39
LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winnerbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.82
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.59
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Groupbacked Nongshim Esports Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$21.38
LoL: Maryville University vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stagebacked Maryville University · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$19.54
LoL: Maryville University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Maryville University · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.2
LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Conviction · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked Ici Japon Corp. Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$10.49
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports (BO1) - LIT Regular Seasonbacked Zena Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
LoL: NRG Esports vs Cupid Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked NRG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$13.77
LoL: NRG Esports vs Cupid Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stagebacked Cupid Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.17
LoL: NRG Esports vs Cupid Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked NRG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$15.48
LoL: Blue Otter vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stagebacked Winthrop University · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+151.2%+$44.54
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Seasonbacked UCAM Esports Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.06
LoL: Blue Otter vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winnerbacked Winthrop University · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.1
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group Bbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.65
LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group Abacked Eintracht Frankfurt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.25
LoL: GIANTX iTero vs LUA Gaming (BO3) - LES Regular Seasonbacked LUA Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.2
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked ZYB Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Showing 25 of 402 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT3151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO5) - VCL Latin America North: Playoffsbacked Fuego · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.97
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Dbacked Misa Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+125.1%+$32.35
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Cbacked MIR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9.92
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.15
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$26.17
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.36
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winnerbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.8
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$51.62
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.9
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$12.26
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+74.1%+$17.88
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffsbacked Oasis Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+95.8%+$12.71
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked Global Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked Dragon Ranger Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.76
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked Dragon Ranger Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.32
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$17.4
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2backed NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+79.1%+$53.45
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.68
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffsbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.6
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD - Map 2 Winnerbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$15.6
Valorant: CGN Esports vs RIZON - Map 2 Winnerbacked CGN Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$11.85
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffsbacked Evil Geniuses Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+73%+$16.91
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$25.2
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$25.24
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.7
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$29.12
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$21.93
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.95
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
All 19 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+68.5%+$73.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Power Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.