Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5816efc6bf134c855332961d5fe47cd29495a00e3dfd56abe7c2a2ed86f4d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4223…3b4cbacked No | 0c | 11,020$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceeb…749dbacked No | 3c | 11,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf813…960fbacked No | 0c | 10,449$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe1…6889backed No | 11c | 9,468$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6da…9381backed No | 1c | 7,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9211…135bbacked No | 13c | 3,853$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…9b8abacked No | 0c | 3,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…ad3abacked No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed No | 14c | 2,397$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.29 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…5f2abacked No | 1c | 2,231$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…0b39backed No | 15c | 1,862$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 16c | 1,839$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 6c | 1,660$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…3e50backed No | 13c | 1,555$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 11c | 1,500$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 15c | 1,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked No | 12c | 1,500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…22ffbacked No | 14c | 1,300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…e36cbacked No | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…a06bbacked No | 11c | 1,246$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 13c | 1,209$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.13 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…0ac6backed No | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…f20dbacked No | 18c | 1,189$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed No | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e2…31c4backed No | 14c | 999.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed No | 10c | 999.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aed…e7bbbacked No | 15c | 998.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2b30backed No | 17c | 905.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed No | 16c | 878.28$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed No | 16c | 838.3$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…fe61backed No | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed No | 16c | 781.18$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed No | 18c | 770$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…1a88backed No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c25…7c3bbacked No | 16c | 650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…e4d1backed No | 15c | 625.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…2370backed No | 16c | 624.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…55cebacked No | 15c | 610.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ca…c471backed No | 20c | 505$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked No | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed No | 13c | 430$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked No | 14c | 418.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 8c | 399.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked No | 7c | 370.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc707…9e0bbacked No | 16c | 359.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…0876backed No | 18c | 310$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdce…5112backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked No | 10c | 249.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 14c | 247.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…5305backed No | 18c | 206.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…deedbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…b090backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 8c | 193.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…4d05backed No | 18c | 179.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…64f5backed No | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…9c71backed No | 19c | 158.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…9b4cbacked No | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 14c | 142$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 8c | 125.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…1449backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca3…6592backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…205bbacked No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed No | 16c | 76.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc303…bdf7backed No | 17c | 73.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…ba3fbacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.