Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9894e3b49c49f930d87c016072bcd80ec7799b1caf6e1011517913c99f7df2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,100,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,239,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,100,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes | 0c | 127,996$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 0c | 107,800$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 1c | 47,046$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.16 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 42,846$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.74 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 1c | 30,097$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…309ebacked Yes | 0c | 27,512$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…4381backed Yes | 1c | 22,749$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a42…56e6backed Yes | 0c | 19,760$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e19…9ce5backed Yes | 1c | 19,545$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422e…8a52backed Yes | 0c | 15,972$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 13,711$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 1c | 11,332$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…2505backed Yes | 1c | 10,649$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +202.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…2c91backed Yes | 1c | 10,323$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d9…ab69backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ae…84d8backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…c5ffbacked Yes | 1c | 9,974$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…02babacked Yes | 1c | 9,816$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,778$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecd…192cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,936$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…d658backed Yes | 1c | 6,111$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb811…5434backed Yes | 1c | 6,098$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…20c2backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…899abacked Yes | 1c | 4,790$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 1c | 4,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…c3aebacked Yes | 1c | 4,522$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…e27cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…3a93backed Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,748$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 1c | 3,746$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1a…4049backed Yes | 1c | 3,565$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,005$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,566$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…ed43backed Yes | 1c | 2,195$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Yes | 1c | 2,085$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,064$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…c117backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…97febacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…1ae1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfff…d1f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…b996backed Yes | 1c | 1,925$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,848$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093c…f3d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 1c | 1,488$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…0570backed Yes | 1c | 1,180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…730cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,152$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…52fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,077$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…a4f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.