TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,177,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,604,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,177,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes12c377,182$46,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,310.912321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes16c216,013$33,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,592.463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ea…fa5fbacked Yes5c170,359$9,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,156.7470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Yes2c163,848$2,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,683.85240%0 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes16c106,704$17,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,448.32339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+122.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes67c99,135$66,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,315.722536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f6…15c4backed No33c98,199$32,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,793.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ac…e915backed Yes2c78,970$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c75,077$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.231488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No74c66,631$49,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,144.468100%8 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2de7…89a4backed Yes0c65,693$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.16190%0 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes1c64,169$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.721031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe339…e01bbacked Yes6c63,422$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,970.732050%10 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+57.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No78c59,295$46,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,873.8337745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes6c53,083$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.891333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a9e…27b9backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf17a…7b1fbacked No46c45,987$21,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,689.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd4…84ddbacked No60c41,532$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,531.721471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c35,595$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.97740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes14c31,456$4,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,492.772733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes34c31,278$10,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,762.0187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes7c29,537$2,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.13402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d2…fc10backed Yes10c29,350$2,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes0c28,246$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.411466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea29…43e3backed No79c27,836$22,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,722.124330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes4c26,000$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.99643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f7…232cbacked Yes1c25,472$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200180%0 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d17…9054backed Yes4c25,089$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.7690%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…deb6backed Yes4c24,695$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Yes68c24,142$16,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,490.142445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked No69c24,065$16,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,523.12070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8daf…8c4abacked No75c23,840$17,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,014.133100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes12c22,571$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.582910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes4c22,399$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.971483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5b…c6c1backed Yes48c22,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,599.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes10c21,451$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.6113117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes10c20,825$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.11015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes9c20,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fba…56d0backed No56c19,442$10,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,459.81887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+41.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdc4…da65backed Yes4c19,365$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4bb…240bbacked Yes5c18,424$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ca…9265backed Yes3c18,000$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.767213.9%10 W · 62 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-28.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x39db…31bfbacked Yes55c17,626$9,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,696.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa388…d84ebacked Yes11c16,455$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1e…5181backed Yes5c13,952$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae9…e1d0backed No41c13,447$5,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,968.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes9c13,209$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.826518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Yes43c13,029$5,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,565.051010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5106…2bacbacked No73c12,545$9,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,374.431050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…0ac6backed No79c11,927$9,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.054470.5%31 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+21.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes2c11,881$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes4c11,738$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.15994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ed…b0f4backed Yes53c11,568$6,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,116.03520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed No73c11,294$8,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,002.467156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No53c11,000$5,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,183.331457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes53c11,000$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,879.9813863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes11c10,978$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.78120%0 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes4c10,972$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.291043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659f…64e5backed Yes2c10,955$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed No67c10,926$7,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,566.0811244.6%50 W · 62 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes30c10,852$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,287.8514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ab…3e26backed Yes4c10,292$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fa…af3abacked Yes51c9,884$5,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040.981861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c8f…34f9backed Yes7c9,721$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes53c9,399$4,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,975.441533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x027e…c97fbacked No50c8,788$4,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,432.324522.2%10 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-59.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d3…3dd5backed Yes10c8,515$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes6c8,429$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x446d…1995backed Yes46c8,362$3,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dc…4ae0backed Yes31c8,179$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.53922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-53%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e64…fc32backed Yes50c8,016$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5d1…bc55backed Yes51c7,648$3,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,928.58110%0 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77eb…9d5cbacked No45c7,562$3,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,177.221656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a99…c413backed No58c7,498$4,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.182050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No60c7,328$4,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.0658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes45c7,000$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,148.26944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c6,981$5,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.7111533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes19c6,888$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.1412259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaadd…d3f1backed No42c6,775$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,955.58650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x838a…add1backed Yes58c6,672$3,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,862.56520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf77…202bbacked Yes0c6,632$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7690%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes31c6,580$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.423619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c6,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…ccffbacked Yes6c6,368$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes8c6,300$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.2514019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes2c5,993$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.04100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes3c5,230$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.612920.7%6 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+74.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9771…e3b9backed Yes4c5,147$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1c…49c1backed Yes2c5,146$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fe…5d9ebacked Yes63c5,106$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.571145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…5723backed No53c5,091$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.013514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes7c5,000$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3721315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e78…3945backed Yes3c5,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d3…6e63backed Yes1c4,964$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa953…8bf7backed No45c4,960$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,743.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fd0…0022backed Yes21c4,856$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf97…3c43backed Yes0c4,743$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd8…87e4backed Yes2c4,743$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb39e…9fc6backed Yes2c4,738$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.