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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$778,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$798,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $778,357 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes31c140,869$44,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,079.256835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked No70c82,413$57,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,112.683946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes30c44,814$13,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,378.5563835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No39c35,550$13,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,720.8313117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf259…71d5backed Yes21c21,821$4,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,580.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…adb6backed Yes63c21,224$13,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,426.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12f…fffbbacked Yes16c12,756$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+110%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No64c8,785$5,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,132.3387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb42…76a5backed Yes46c8,059$3,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,671.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Yes46c8,000$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,689.951533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71fb…163fbacked No69c6,430$4,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed No72c6,266$4,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.697156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xce00…7ce0backed No28c4,926$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,565.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes62c4,804$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dda…df45backed Yes11c4,271$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes55c4,170$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.497327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No40c3,715$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.083737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8d…299cbacked No57c3,412$1,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.924047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce71…83bcbacked No59c3,200$1,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed No25c3,200$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.337112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x66ad…cc4ebacked No58c3,000$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.35666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed No52c2,590$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5106…2bacbacked No80c2,521$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.321050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes12c2,484$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.53110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4615…5ccbbacked No33c2,304$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.11376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+78%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c31…09c2backed Yes1c2,211$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd6…8b1dbacked Yes2c2,085$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes5c1,899$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.354533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45fb…f1f6backed No77c1,888$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.661353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes61c1,643$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.515954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b0…372fbacked No64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.051163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa813…04fbbacked No36c1,364$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.339964.6%64 W · 35 L+17.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xbfe2…8c49backed No73c1,301$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.37683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes15c1,206$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.954721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes55c1,198$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.5312259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed No57c1,044$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.53234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc284…ba60backed Yes27c1,035$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+322.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No59c999.99$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4101533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc073…861bbacked Yes6c967.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf194…feaabacked No69c914.83$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed No9c907.97$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.021483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes35c900.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.132445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…8761backed Yes45c839.98$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.79944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked No43c790$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.53650%18 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34c…887ebacked Yes72c782.02$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.1940%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc71…3e50backed Yes4c762.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed No8c723.16$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.851043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f72…230abacked Yes32c700.47$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.15185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes34c650.1$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1814019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f0…c807backed Yes11c621.17$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked No7c620.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.76994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…fa0ebacked No33c599.8$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.951050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd0…4516backed No35c575.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+75.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked No37c552.14$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.912412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4377…1764backed Yes18c547.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes50c506.55$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522825%7 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes2c505.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.373823.7%9 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3a8…70b3backed No12c500$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+178.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc40…56a3backed No43c500$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2831241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce9…7c15backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes24c499.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.412012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked No35c490$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.513038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…6feabacked No80c489.19$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.843171%22 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes25c479.92$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb9…4f81backed No76c465.47$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc487…b127backed Yes25c443.25$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.611258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6915…9a47backed Yes6c442.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fd…e897backed Yes69c434.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ea…105dbacked No28c431.45$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.282128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes58c431.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes7c428.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930c…2651backed No5c416.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.672222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+74.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x088d…82f9backed No80c413$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe886…e553backed Yes18c412.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.17166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No5c400.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.672126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked No11c400$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3562100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+417.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9095…96f7backed No49c400$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2052972.4%21 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+39.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbbba…d60fbacked Yes40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9343…3f72backed Yes28c369.85$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.13911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31bb…3621backed Yes12c366.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc823…a910backed No68c363.08$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.194100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked No18c352.24$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+90.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x299c…7e23backed Yes55c351.98$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e4…5aeabacked Yes14c344.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.632222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5337…329abacked Yes34c336.56$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0683…dbf3backed No21c331.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.73955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76e4…311ebacked No63c330.7$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a6…aed7backed No37c328.77$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+127.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2b3…d84cbacked Yes12c321.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4a…8a46backed No62c321.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.141070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6d…10fabacked No63c307.53$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfff…d1f4backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-76.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-80.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa15c…06babacked Yes41c298.41$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.251010%1 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick40cpaid-85.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1024…9651backed No60c291.54$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c13…3c34backed No69c289.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44be…76b1backed No72c285.04$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb424…3b71backed Yes46c280.09$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.