TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,005,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,225,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,005,524 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes0c82,996$148 inLost-$148120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d9…ab69backed Yes0c78,626$270 inLost-$270.18250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c51,485$56 inLost-$55.53740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes0c35,015$117 inLost-$116.89220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes1c24,990$175 inLost-$174.933010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes0c21,990$100 inLost-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc46…899abacked Yes1c17,658$100 inLost-$99.97120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc25f…1970backed Yes1c15,125$95 inLost-$94.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…02babacked Yes1c15,095$100 inLost-$100290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes1c14,376$100 inLost-$1004721.3%10 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes0c13,414$54 inLost-$53.66454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2802…f2f5backed Yes1c10,705$64 inLost-$64.2350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes1c6,069$37 inLost-$37.21219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35f…f8bbbacked Yes0c6,000$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb811…5434backed Yes1c5,591$55 inLost-$55229.1%2 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2255…c5ffbacked Yes0c5,297$26 inLost-$25.7730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd329…b3f3backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ba…e27cbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost-$251822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes1c4,858$29 inLost-$29.15130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes0c4,541$18 inLost-$18.37140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes0c3,476$16 inLost-$15.6190%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc8…6960backed Yes1c3,213$22 inLost-$22.491811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c26…59efbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e7…a42dbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.