Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f8f6342f0a0b8c90ff6113fdb9f9e5fb83a0fe24e3a409a2ab5f3305cee299a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,064,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,100,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,064,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 77,148$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…382bbacked Yes | 2c | 43,096$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…f6d4backed Yes | 0c | 42,098$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 0c | 41,368$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…31d6backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a29…6909backed Yes | 1c | 22,554$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf7…aeb3backed Yes | 0c | 20,512$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…908fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,794$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 15,954$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,233$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.14 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 11,752$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b73…17d2backed Yes | 1c | 8,500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…d769backed Yes | 1c | 7,826$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,191$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…79c1backed Yes | 2c | 6,179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,760$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…43e3backed Yes | 1c | 5,484$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf6…4b9cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,340$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…2370backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…52b0backed Yes | 1c | 4,772$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…c75ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,739$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…a600backed Yes | 1c | 4,184$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…a4babacked Yes | 2c | 4,125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 2c | 3,808$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x665d…ea00backed Yes | 0c | 3,659$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66a…d5a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,564$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…02babacked Yes | 1c | 3,512$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed Yes | 2c | 3,360$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 0c | 3,074$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 1c | 2,706$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,688$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…a4babacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,070$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d3…6e63backed Yes | 1c | 1,623$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e4…efe3backed Yes | 1c | 1,514$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…67e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,510$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,438$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ba…458cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,406$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…c707backed Yes | 1c | 1,343$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 1,340$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…0380backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…cf5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,253$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…8473backed Yes | 1c | 1,173$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,158$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138f…6b9ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…fed1backed Yes | 1c | 1,092$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…9dc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,091$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…3b71backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…743fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e6adbacked Yes | 1c | 980.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c9…f035backed Yes | 1c | 869.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…e385backed Yes | 2c | 839.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…8f69backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb10…5b31backed Yes | 2c | 540.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.