TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$452,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$469,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,923 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18c3…21a0backed Yes0c41,718$181 inLost-$180.77230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c40,347$44 inLost-$43.72740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391e…d00cbacked Yes0c35,000$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes0c18,144$48 inLost-$48.44220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes0c13,927$32 inLost-$31.791519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes0c12,338$35 inLost-$34.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2105…e98bbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d9…ab69backed Yes0c9,999$20 inLost-$20250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…d7debacked Yes0c8,828$34 inLost-$33.93120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2255…c5ffbacked Yes0c5,464$20 inLost-$19.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$204721.3%10 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8577…0eb3backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost-$25137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes0c4,104$12 inLost-$12.3190%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes0c3,464$10 inLost-$10.39130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$10362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.