TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,928,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,523,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,928,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 994 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes14c222,570$31,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,047.2163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes11c211,853$23,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,757.9135123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0da…1f80backed No78c74,333$57,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,612.68520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes17c70,846$11,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,913.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3526…aababacked Yes7c59,232$4,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,176.65425.9%14 W · 40 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick11cpaid+83.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb50c…215bbacked Yes27c51,094$13,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,769.3825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55c…74babacked Yes12c50,000$6,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,102.1150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d0…efacbacked Yes15c49,546$7,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,661.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Yes27c45,606$12,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,197.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes5c44,665$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.153010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e4e…c0f5backed Yes4c42,154$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088d…82f9backed No77c35,573$27,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,034.68650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee23…cacabacked Yes12c34,084$4,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,122.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked Yes9c29,209$2,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…5723backed Yes2c29,182$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.93514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes7c27,744$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.22643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc823…a910backed No79c26,510$20,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,567.044100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed Yes14c25,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes13c24,633$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,195.32339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+122.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes11c23,068$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.432910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6c…ac5cbacked Yes11c22,986$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0838…63b1backed Yes34c22,275$7,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,491.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes7c22,269$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.56110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No77c21,439$16,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,938.0158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd4…84ddbacked No77c20,810$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,810.231471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes15c18,981$2,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,798.5328113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c31…09c2backed Yes1c18,257$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed Yes23c17,470$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes12c17,439$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.892619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes8c17,295$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.64010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes7c17,051$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.681435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes13c17,007$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.192733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes1c15,510$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.311833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes6c15,444$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.011483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes13c15,388$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.14402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6e…e39dbacked No79c15,367$12,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,212.881872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes6c15,100$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.2623411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a9e…27b9backed Yes3c14,734$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.71100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes25c14,109$3,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,527.31315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-54.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes30c13,822$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,156.322626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e32…31fdbacked Yes4c13,760$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes9c13,450$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.774721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes11c13,310$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.731015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb870…9f67backed Yes16c13,047$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes16c13,000$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.452347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xad26…589cbacked Yes30c12,500$3,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,810450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes16c12,500$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No79c12,000$9,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.991782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes3c11,658$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12f…fffbbacked Yes7c11,226$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+110%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8e91…3335backed Yes6c11,107$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.641010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-81.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x345e…6bc7backed Yes7c10,380$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.673417.6%6 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b6…2505backed Yes6c10,080$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+202.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x530e…cc11backed Yes1c10,049$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.816123%14 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+143.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x156d…e025backed Yes16c10,036$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.361315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f2c…c700backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…a799backed Yes5c10,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Yes10c9,888$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes15c9,036$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.514934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes6c8,785$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.45994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No79c8,651$6,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.7414337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes12c8,603$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.4811210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes14c8,398$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.72475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+151.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes19c8,352$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6131…fd16backed Yes21c8,313$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.851643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92f9…e5fabacked Yes4c7,965$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.981118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes12c7,924$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.9213117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfff…d1f4backed Yes7c7,817$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.21911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-76.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b2…639ebacked Yes23c7,812$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.092744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf587…2759backed Yes10c7,662$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ac…1e4dbacked Yes25c7,542$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb2…99a3backed No76c7,500$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8002065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes6c7,479$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.191043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes21c7,454$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.198619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Yes13c7,253$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.691513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37f4…49afbacked Yes27c7,061$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.74922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+97.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5342…d243backed Yes14c6,969$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.422425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5f…3f0bbacked Yes26c6,744$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.02520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed Yes12c6,486$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ff…7a4dbacked Yes14c6,417$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc491…99b8backed Yes22c6,286$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed No75c6,262$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa5…473ebacked Yes18c6,126$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c6,114$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.664163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa096…aa97backed Yes33c6,030$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No74c6,000$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,58013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…112dbacked Yes17c5,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes11c5,937$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.5170%0 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf575…0791backed Yes28c5,331$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+315.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xadb4…9ce5backed Yes6c5,180$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d3…a266backed Yes26c5,095$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes24c4,990$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.261288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2de7…89a4backed Yes13c4,972$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.21190%0 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cee…22ffbacked No68c4,853$3,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.17944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0922…58f1backed Yes24c4,843$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes21c4,769$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.744231%13 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+55.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf293…65eebacked Yes21c4,550$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes8c4,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes11c4,466$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.893619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.