Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27ad7baca4066891d8e8e5a4df38b164e95b56757041a5c198d24f9cd984b877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,928,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,523,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,928,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 994 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 14c | 222,570$31,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,047.21 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 11c | 211,853$23,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,757.91 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…1f80backed No | 78c | 74,333$57,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,612.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 17c | 70,846$11,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,913.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 7c | 59,232$4,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,176.6 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…215bbacked Yes | 27c | 51,094$13,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,769.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 12c | 50,000$6,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,102.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…efacbacked Yes | 15c | 49,546$7,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,661.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…b8f7backed Yes | 27c | 45,606$12,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,197.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 5c | 44,665$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.15 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…c0f5backed Yes | 4c | 42,154$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…82f9backed No | 77c | 35,573$27,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,034.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee23…cacabacked Yes | 12c | 34,084$4,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,122.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 9c | 29,209$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5723backed Yes | 2c | 29,182$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.9 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 7c | 27,744$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.22 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc823…a910backed No | 79c | 26,510$20,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,567.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed Yes | 14c | 25,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 13c | 24,633$3,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,195.32 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x075e…1840backed Yes | 11c | 23,068$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.43 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6c…ac5cbacked Yes | 11c | 22,986$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…63b1backed Yes | 34c | 22,275$7,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,491.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 7c | 22,269$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 77c | 21,439$16,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,938.01 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd4…84ddbacked No | 77c | 20,810$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,810.23 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 18,981$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,798.53 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…09c2backed Yes | 1c | 18,257$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 23c | 17,470$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed Yes | 12c | 17,439$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.89 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 8c | 17,295$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.6 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 7c | 17,051$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…4206backed Yes | 13c | 17,007$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.19 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 1c | 15,510$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 6c | 15,444$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.01 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 13c | 15,388$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.14 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 79c | 15,367$12,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.88 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 6c | 15,100$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.26 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9e…27b9backed Yes | 3c | 14,734$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 25c | 14,109$3,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,527.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe784…e664backed Yes | 30c | 13,822$4,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,156.32 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e32…31fdbacked Yes | 4c | 13,760$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 9c | 13,450$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.77 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 11c | 13,310$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.73 | 101 | 5.9%6 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…9f67backed Yes | 16c | 13,047$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 16c | 13,000$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 26cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…589cbacked Yes | 30c | 12,500$3,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,810 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes | 16c | 12,500$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed No | 79c | 12,000$9,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,539.99 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 3c | 11,658$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…fffbbacked Yes | 7c | 11,226$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +110%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…3335backed Yes | 6c | 11,107$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…6bc7backed Yes | 7c | 10,380$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.67 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…2505backed Yes | 6c | 10,080$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +202.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 1c | 10,049$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…e025backed Yes | 16c | 10,036$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…c700backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…a799backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Yes | 10c | 9,888$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 15c | 9,036$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.51 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 6c | 8,785$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.45 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed No | 79c | 8,651$6,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.74 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 12c | 8,603$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.48 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 14c | 8,398$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 19c | 8,352$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…fd16backed Yes | 21c | 8,313$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f9…e5fabacked Yes | 4c | 7,965$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 12c | 7,924$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.92 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfff…d1f4backed Yes | 7c | 7,817$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…639ebacked Yes | 23c | 7,812$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.09 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…2759backed Yes | 10c | 7,662$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ac…1e4dbacked Yes | 25c | 7,542$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…99a3backed No | 76c | 7,500$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 6c | 7,479$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.19 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 21c | 7,454$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.19 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ae…84d8backed Yes | 13c | 7,253$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.69 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…49afbacked Yes | 27c | 7,061$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…d243backed Yes | 14c | 6,969$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…3f0bbacked Yes | 26c | 6,744$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed Yes | 12c | 6,486$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…7a4dbacked Yes | 14c | 6,417$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc491…99b8backed Yes | 22c | 6,286$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 75c | 6,262$4,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…473ebacked Yes | 18c | 6,126$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 6,114$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa096…aa97backed Yes | 33c | 6,030$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 74c | 6,000$4,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…112dbacked Yes | 17c | 5,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes | 11c | 5,937$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…0791backed Yes | 28c | 5,331$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 13cpaid | +315.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…9ce5backed Yes | 6c | 5,180$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…a266backed Yes | 26c | 5,095$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 24c | 4,990$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.26 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 13c | 4,972$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.21 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…22ffbacked No | 68c | 4,853$3,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0922…58f1backed Yes | 24c | 4,843$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 21c | 4,769$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.74 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…65eebacked Yes | 21c | 4,550$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 8c | 4,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 11c | 4,466$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.89 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.