TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,397,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,520,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,397,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30e4…5102backed Yes2c185,309$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,991.523010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes2c49,996$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9210313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes2c49,922$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes0c42,599$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes1c39,788$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.051216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc72f…0f87backed Yes1c30,655$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422e…8a52backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d9…ab69backed Yes1c18,837$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.53250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes3c16,769$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.852733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc4…cb23backed Yes1c14,672$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes1c14,297$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.16454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c27…4381backed Yes1c13,622$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes2c13,192$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.651822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c12,241$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes1c10,997$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.86220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes2c10,641$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.33219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd84f…f0e0backed Yes3c10,127$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4129…4dc9backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Yes2c8,624$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes1c8,045$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.55904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda42…5732backed Yes2c7,031$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33b0…fa5dbacked Yes1c6,634$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc8…f0c3backed Yes2c6,020$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.46520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c6,002$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9828113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0add…ea05backed Yes2c5,646$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e91…3335backed Yes1c5,582$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.911010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-81.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes0c5,087$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992825%7 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes1c5,009$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.32110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc7…7e20backed Yes2c5,000$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.55166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16f…655cbacked Yes2c5,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152313%3 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfd4…fe7bbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…02babacked Yes2c4,720$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.96290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Yes2c4,400$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.21513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes1c4,213$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.55140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80b9…0863backed Yes2c4,089$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.39180%0 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef9…71cfbacked Yes1c4,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ecd…192cbacked Yes2c3,956$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a6…dd8fbacked Yes1c3,787$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes1c3,722$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.371043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed Yes3c3,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.52114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes1c3,487$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.011483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes1c3,487$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.34994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbebe…d658backed Yes2c3,226$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-72.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfff…d1f4backed Yes2c3,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-76.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x093c…f3d5backed Yes2c2,941$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes1c2,756$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ba…e27cbacked Yes1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes2c2,500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3338…6ec2backed Yes2c2,469$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf63a…d769backed Yes2c2,393$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8577…0eb3backed Yes2c2,353$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes2c2,209$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.811001%1 W · 99 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-96.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf323…c999backed Yes2c2,148$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5670%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc431…97cabacked Yes2c2,125$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9670%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4631…3ff9backed Yes1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…99dabacked Yes2c2,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes2c1,993$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-26%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3024…b996backed Yes2c1,975$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc46…899abacked Yes2c1,965$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.26120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…bb54backed Yes2c1,875$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f80…e886backed Yes1c1,867$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb4…a7b9backed Yes2c1,781$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.731030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes1c1,780$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c1,647$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.08402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f0a…2765backed Yes3c1,600$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8230…a577backed Yes2c1,507$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254425%11 W · 33 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+241.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,194$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.364163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f77…8eb1backed Yes1c1,154$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c1,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd712…df34backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c9…65febacked Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2810…1131backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+147.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c2…cab0backed Yes2c999.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d2…05a8backed Yes2c977.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53280%0 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf7…aeb3backed Yes1c976.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x034e…f79dbacked Yes2c970.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183718.9%7 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+78.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x868e…5392backed Yes2c869.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x138f…6b9ebacked Yes2c850.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-67.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d5…b66cbacked Yes3c848.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6290%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c822$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-93%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba8…d489backed Yes2c771.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes3c700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8728…e2c6backed Yes2c688$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32933.2%3 W · 90 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1228…f18cbacked Yes2c665.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.94812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-82.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes2c600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e5…e6adbacked Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419f…e853backed Yes2c449.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c63…56e7backed Yes3c326$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.