TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,154,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,969,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,154,147 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2424…3b61backed Yes7c289,445$19,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,907.64520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes4c132,954$4,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,698.471513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes4c126,553$5,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,464.893010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes5c103,708$5,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,285.5563835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes5c91,389$4,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,309.2335123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ff1…c554backed Yes3c56,457$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Yes6c55,148$3,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,222.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes4c41,937$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.57402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes12c33,839$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,967.892733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0838…63b1backed Yes11c32,708$3,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,655.421040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c30,910$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.27740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes7c29,482$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.52170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes4c23,700$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e32…31fdbacked Yes2c23,659$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes9c23,325$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.3314213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes4c21,881$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.0513117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81bc…fb58backed Yes8c21,844$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes6c21,050$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes8c20,574$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.672910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes5c19,381$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.94478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b6e…9f3abacked Yes3c19,059$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.7360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78f…9cffbacked Yes5c18,546$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.41100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c18,012$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.611015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d9…ab69backed Yes4c16,301$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.06250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked Yes10c16,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5202070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes3c15,974$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.841483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes4c15,921$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.728113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd988…fd9dbacked Yes3c13,210$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes5c12,944$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.75110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c11,500$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b6…2505backed Yes3c11,140$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.41136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+202.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a42…56e6backed Yes2c10,526$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3c…2a87backed Yes5c10,286$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.7180%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes4c10,086$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.791043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x953e…37ccbacked Yes12c10,033$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa232…d79bbacked Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713c…c6babacked Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e1…65c8backed Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e4e…c0f5backed Yes5c9,564$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes5c9,560$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.632356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x656a…888abacked Yes2c9,344$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes4c9,162$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.77994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes8c8,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf951…afdbbacked Yes6c8,645$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9e…27b9backed Yes2c8,549$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.47100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfdd…5585backed Yes3c8,498$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.12195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Yes4c8,474$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.291513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16f…655cbacked Yes3c8,401$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.82313%3 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Yes4c8,317$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.83520%7 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e91…3335backed Yes2c7,587$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.961010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-81.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes2c7,257$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.47270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6131…fd16backed Yes7c7,169$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.381643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x784d…d27dbacked Yes13c7,081$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.142729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes12c7,017$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.22626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes2c7,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d3…3dd5backed Yes8c7,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes8c6,753$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.853619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf63a…d769backed Yes6c6,648$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.612817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc917…c359backed Yes12c6,496$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf575…0791backed Yes12c6,392$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7551637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+315.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe468…769dbacked Yes3c6,250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf587…2759backed Yes4c6,070$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8230…a577backed Yes6c6,033$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414425%11 W · 33 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+241.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb9ff…7a4dbacked Yes8c5,975$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes10c5,781$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.7223411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes5c5,555$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.34010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf499…b5d9backed Yes5c5,524$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.741241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes7c5,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3902347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7820…5723backed Yes1c5,459$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.83514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes2c5,383$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.981010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-83.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ad…c163backed Yes2c4,652$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.781921.1%4 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick10cpaid+165.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes1c4,340$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes5c4,332$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…a82fbacked Yes7c4,151$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes10c4,000$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.538619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9da…f17abacked Yes7c3,916$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…5343backed Yes8c3,896$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes6c3,759$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.782445.8%11 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+346.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x65d3…a266backed Yes11c3,736$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes2c3,607$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.791225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes1c3,603$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.148411.9%10 W · 74 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+599.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc643…62a9backed Yes7c3,145$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes4c3,112$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.14219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa462…cd56backed Yes5c3,101$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c3,096$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.74482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31d3…6e63backed Yes1c3,079$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba3…738cbacked Yes2c3,032$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c3,023$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.95590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes4c3,010$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4631…3ff9backed Yes5c3,000$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Yes6c3,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+63%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e01…a4babacked Yes3c2,999$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.36260%0 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59bb…6d65backed Yes12c2,938$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.36456.7%3 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes5c2,918$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1711328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…62a4backed Yes9c2,735$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.13215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,575$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.041490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc8…f0c3backed Yes8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes4c2,500$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9714019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.