Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60e3040779d2493128281cf0f5ae14be765777c501f8af86232ceec09dba49f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe47c…1e55backed Yes | 1c | 27,539$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 6c | 16,294$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.26 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…6e71backed Yes | 2c | 15,990$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 12,889$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Yes | 3c | 12,520$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.01 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 1c | 11,518$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 4c | 9,822$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.04 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 4c | 7,292$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,533$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fb…4ababacked Yes | 2c | 5,261$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b200backed Yes | 2c | 5,155$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…c46cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,963$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 3c | 4,864$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.44 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…9054backed Yes | 3c | 4,262$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…0b39backed Yes | 9c | 3,935$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.81 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes | 2c | 3,883$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 5c | 3,486$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.19 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 5c | 3,289$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 1c | 3,112$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,841$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 13c | 2,411$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.92 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 2,394$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…7cbebacked Yes | 8c | 2,100$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…0dcabacked Yes | 2c | 1,774$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Yes | 2c | 1,766$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,690$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…efe0backed Yes | 1c | 1,657$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…9417backed Yes | 1c | 1,417$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…b731backed Yes | 53c | 1,304$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf77…202bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,222$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 75c | 1,193$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.45 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 5c | 1,107$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe8…edf5backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 999.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…f1f6backed Yes | 3c | 966.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…81e8backed Yes | 2c | 911.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…ada7backed Yes | 9c | 888.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbd…e527backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4249…d239backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 3c | 783.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 103 | 0%0 W · 103 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 4c | 776.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…2b48backed Yes | 7c | 703.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…c749backed Yes | 2c | 630$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 2c | 590$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 528.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…2ecabacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb0…c303backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…f25fbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 5c | 464.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…1065backed Yes | 6c | 436$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcd…3560backed Yes | 3c | 428.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 7c | 330$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 4c | 319.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ec…f512backed Yes | 26c | 313.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…abefbacked Yes | 7c | 266.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Yes | 7c | 209.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e8…cf1cbacked Yes | 8c | 136.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 79c | 125.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…8bd7backed No | 75c | 53.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f4bdbacked Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes | 46c | 34.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.