TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x92fa…7d02

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: NBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 52 out of 100; worst Champions League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT3844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.51
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.86
Cavaliers vs. Rockets: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 247.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+426.3%+$161.56
Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Suns vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+426.3%+$81
Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$292.03
Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 246.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$208
Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+69.8%+$187.82
Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+61.3%+$95
Lakers vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+78.6%+$211.62
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+72.4%+$86.9
Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$705Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$705.44
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+78.6%+$94.29
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$460
Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+92.3%+$46.15
Kings vs. Heat: O/U 242.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+88.7%+$88.68
Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+81.8%+$81.82
Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+66.7%+$33.33
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+100%+$100
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$657Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$657
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$28.19
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.03
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.26
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$111
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+229.7%+$462.07
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.1
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+293.1%+$44.31
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+335.7%+$212.85
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.68
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.97
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.59
All 17 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-72.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jesper de Jong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$257
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$167.05
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$101.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$157.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$265.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$188.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.