NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ce019b67590f25e65061a99b317e23446aece42fe571efb3e798b9d8bf366b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 4,251$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.38 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 3,446$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 45c | 605.52$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.7 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 49c | 408.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 56c | 224.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 51c | 199.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 56c | 155.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 56c | 149$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00df…701bbacked Over | 20c | 146.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Under | 57c | 136.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc687…e856backed Under | 63c | 78.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 57.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 54.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 38c | 48.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 42c | 46.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 36c | 32.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Under | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 56c | 23.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 56c | 23.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…e132backed Under | 56c | 22.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43c2…3066backed Under | 57c | 22.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.