NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eaeb2b9bb9906e6eb67b6eeb72c215a9da70b5d6e3ba3d2941fc57ce5937da8

Rebuilt 49 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Magic
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,401 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks	48c	6,384$3,074 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,310.12	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic	53c	6,000$3,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,179.99	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Magic	54c	5,953$3,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,214.38	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks	47c	5,763$2,715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,048.28	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Knicks	46c	4,956$2,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,675.97	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8955…b51dbacked Magic	53c	3,774$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic	48c	2,088$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.76	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe66e…abddbacked Knicks	51c	1,938$988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$949.64	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic	52c	1,871$981 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.47	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic	49c	1,742$852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$852.09	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Magic	52c	1,101$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.59	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ff…62ccbacked Knicks	48c	1,100$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572	64	42.2%27 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Knicks	48c	1,005$482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.59	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks	52c	964$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.37	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks	48c	957.01$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Magic	52c	869.23$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic	48c	700$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Knicks	48c	573.73$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.34	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Knicks	49c	523$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.84	194	48.5%94 W · 100 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Magic	54c	434.78$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.78	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Knicks	46c	434.78$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.78	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Magic	50c	400.3$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Knicks	48c	400$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	51c	258.32$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.33	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd2…3036backed Magic	57c	210.53$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Knicks	43c	203.05$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.96	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Magic	54c	185.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.2	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Magic	55c	184.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.74	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2487…3234backed Magic	44c	164$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.16	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3268…f230backed Knicks	56c	157$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.08	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…0c2ebacked Magic	52c	134.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x343e…360ebacked Magic	54c	122.96$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.34	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Magic	51c	112.24$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.24	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe706…6921backed Knicks	49c	104.08$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.08	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	-7.6wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Knicks	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Knicks	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Magic	50c	80.9$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.12	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks	52c	69.31$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.26	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Knicks	47c	66$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.98	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Knicks	54c	61.6$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.34	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Magic	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Magic	52c	47$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.57	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Knicks	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	201	54.2%109 W · 92 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Knicks	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Knicks	47c	42.53$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.54	195	43.1%84 W · 111 L	-12.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x370b…5009backed Knicks	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c7d…a54abacked Magic	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.7wins	-0.25per pick	51cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Magic	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bf…147ebacked Magic	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c8f…e132backed Knicks	49c	26.06$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.2wins	+0.31per pick	55cpaid	+58.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Knicks	58c	25.86$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.86	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Magic	56c	19.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	210	51.4%108 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event