NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 119.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09deee3e7d85542b3af2724bcc7d34f5225298fca862c0bb9062e0ed6373f56e

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,022 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9519…3b2ebacked Under	56c	3,728$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,627.42	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Under	59c	1,699$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$699.29	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	42c	1,617$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$683.83	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	42c	1,159$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.54	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Over	44c	1,134$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.82	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	46c	1,037$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.19	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	44c	496$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.68	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Under	49c	258$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.58	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc192…3157backed Over	50c	220$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32fe…4fd9backed Over	49c	211$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.39	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b97…5b2bbacked Under	50c	210$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc490…29d6backed Over	49c	201$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.49	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59a6…edc4backed Under	51c	197$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.53	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6148…440cbacked Under	51c	188$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6092…f6ddbacked Over	49c	186$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.14	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5b…dd6cbacked Under	51c	175$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Over	46c	47.14$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.68	100	45%45 W · 55 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 119.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event