NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7eb6c4864df7447fb6bb46bd4e1cc3ecf271104e758d4abd6e9033213fd982f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Knicks | 45c | 62,208$28,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,044.99 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 55c | 39,227$21,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,437.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Magic | 54c | 11,870$6,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,409.8 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 49c | 7,865$3,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,027.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Magic | 58c | 7,449$4,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,355.82 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Knicks | 43c | 5,544$2,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160.08 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks | 50c | 5,229$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.85 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks | 48c | 4,792$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 54c | 3,983$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.57 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks | 47c | 3,950$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.33 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 56c | 2,077$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Magic | 54c | 1,884$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.53 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Magic | 56c | 1,761$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Knicks | 44c | 1,687$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.72 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Magic | 56c | 1,221$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.6 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 46c | 1,198$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.92 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Magic | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 54c | 1,132$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.3 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…8e9dbacked Magic | 50c | 1,109$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Knicks | 42c | 777$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.66 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Knicks | 49c | 678.85$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed Knicks | 44c | 345.57$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.52 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Knicks | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Magic | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Knicks | 47c | 225.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Knicks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Knicks | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Magic | 47c | 189$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Magic | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…7a8ebacked Knicks | 70c | 107.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Knicks | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Magic | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…4057backed Magic | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 215 | 34%73 W · 142 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Knicks | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Knicks | 47c | 45.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Knicks | 49c | 44.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Magic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Magic | 56c | 33.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Magic | 48c | 32.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Knicks | 49c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a8…bbbebacked Knicks | 52c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Magic | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…c9e3backed Knicks | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…6396backed Knicks | 54c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…edc6backed Knicks | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…e44ebacked Knicks | 53c | 19.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf8…a71ebacked Knicks | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.