NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06ee1a502fa75580ed6f47a894151a9dd221a2ba542bcca8409b38ee4966adfb

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $90,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $116,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,556 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd43c…04e8backed Under	50c	25,916$12,947 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,968.99	115	35.7%41 W · 74 L	-12.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Over	50c	17,015$8,508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,507.5	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	48c	8,000$3,810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,810	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	47c	4,324$2,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,032.29	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Under	53c	3,774$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,773.87	172	50%86 W · 86 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x497a…2fc8backed Under	53c	3,747$1,986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,761.17	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+91.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over	50c	2,552$1,277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,277.09	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under	53c	2,522$1,337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,185.34	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	53c	2,268$1,196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071.76	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	2,151$1,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,034.33	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	49c	2,148$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060.06	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	53c	1,538$815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$722.63	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under	53c	1,500$795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d59…778dbacked Under	52c	1,143$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.02	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	49c	1,071$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.79	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f8…09f7backed Over	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-4.7wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Over	47c	500$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	51c	465$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.15	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Under	52c	426.53$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.74	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	272	47.8%130 W · 142 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over	50c	321.87$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.14	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	50c	304.5$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.25	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Over	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	50c	261.87$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.95	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde8…c52fbacked Over	51c	245.1$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	185	36.2%67 W · 118 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over	51c	245$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.76	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	51c	215$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.51	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	156	53.8%84 W · 72 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Over	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	280	63.6%178 W · 102 L	+13.3wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Under	49c	180$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.95	129	52.7%68 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	53c	160$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.2	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6611…17e7backed Under	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c1…b4afbacked Over	50c	98$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4e…dc93backed Over	51c	87.9$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.83	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	50c	65.94$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6d…65b0backed Over	48c	49.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over	50c	40.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.26	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Over	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	129	51.9%67 W · 62 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	223	47.1%105 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Over	51c	39.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	561	54.5%306 W · 255 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeabf…97e5backed Over	51c	31.37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Over	50c	22.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8d…a20dbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event