TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Magic, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,367,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,553,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,367,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,869 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Magic49c1,294,622$640,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640,0005952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Magic48c483,896$232,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232,649.6125248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Knicks50c425,000$214,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210,80026753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Knicks49c310,829$153,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,744.287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Knicks50c294,818$147,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147,409.254452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks53c143,451$76,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,800.355,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Knicks52c83,250$43,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,550.4927747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Magic45c66,162$29,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,705.4438649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf963…0637backed Magic46c61,600$28,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,494.634742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Knicks79c58,062$46,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,928.967869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks54c45,448$24,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,923.7559653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks60c44,747$26,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,863.322,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Knicks55c43,957$24,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,668.1744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Magic47c42,553$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0009641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks65c40,683$26,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,162.94,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Magic47c39,823$18,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,716.8917554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks52c37,647$19,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,075.852,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Knicks51c29,053$14,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,235.9710235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Knicks51c28,263$14,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,780.372142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Knicks51c27,648$14,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,509.3117658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Knicks53c25,000$13,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,6334252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Magic46c23,663$10,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,889.0239349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic16c23,659$3,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,826.641,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks52c23,166$12,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,121.939,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Knicks52c22,296$11,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,752.112,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks69c19,405$13,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,028.528,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Magic50c19,398$9,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,749.324038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Knicks51c18,216$9,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,925.8418151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Knicks56c17,981$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,980.5734062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Knicks67c17,647$11,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,792.687259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Knicks53c17,367$9,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,232.0546342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks52c17,274$9,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,260.043,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Magic39c17,000$6,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,544.9847028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Knicks64c16,872$10,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,091.827917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Knicks59c15,967$9,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,498.454,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Knicks55c15,716$8,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,065.598361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Knicks77c13,773$10,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,114.341,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb90c…9a6abacked Magic32c13,567$4,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,291.253234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd0…00c1backed Knicks53c13,300$7,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2513100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dae…b2e1backed Knicks53c13,232$7,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,219.044100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+83.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b45…41e3backed Knicks55c13,000$7,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,789.992236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5264…8352backed Knicks52c12,362$6,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,933.89785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic42c11,717$4,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,915.084,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bff…5c89backed Magic42c11,073$4,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,650.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Magic5c10,972$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.7214243%61 W · 81 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d6e…2bfebacked Magic39c10,500$4,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,095366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed Magic45c10,325$4,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,646.431822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic21c9,872$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.643,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Knicks51c9,804$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.9213153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Knicks53c9,278$4,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,353.8611649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Magic50c9,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3904…0dcfbacked Magic39c8,700$3,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,393771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+73.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x331b…944ebacked Magic47c8,650$4,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,065.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Magic47c8,500$3,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,95535547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed Knicks53c8,500$4,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9971145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Magic49c8,500$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,164.9816641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Knicks52c8,457$4,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,059.3619958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Magic41c8,452$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Knicks54c8,028$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,672.9418536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9da7…8d0fbacked Magic45c8,025$3,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,611.141428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-58.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa44b…18f5backed Magic8c8,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Knicks79c7,890$6,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.291,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Knicks56c7,384$4,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.0569852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Magic42c7,201$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.3646928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb7f0…7facbacked Knicks53c7,200$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,383.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+79.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe97f…d5b1backed Magic47c7,000$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,29030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic46c7,000$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,219.971,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9c…17f3backed Knicks61c6,637$4,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,588.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9106…d826backed Magic45c6,546$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.731637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee1e…912ebacked Magic47c6,300$2,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,961425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Magic40c6,200$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48023135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…f65cbacked Knicks53c6,178$3,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,903.431233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2844…2420backed Knicks62c5,900$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c72…0946backed Knicks55c5,700$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.21346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb355…60e8backed Knicks61c5,602$3,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3f…24abbacked Knicks60c5,600$3,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.727100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Knicks52c5,400$2,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.997957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74c1…0f3cbacked Magic42c5,342$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Magic38c5,312$2,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.7136741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Magic39c5,084$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.6724831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbed…0d9bbacked Knicks57c5,065$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,177.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Knicks52c5,035$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,396.7626247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefc…2958backed Knicks57c4,933$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3298…8ea9backed Knicks62c4,900$3,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da3…f811backed Magic42c4,655$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Knicks54c4,630$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.6348938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks69c4,626$3,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.633,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic0c4,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8185…aa29backed Magic47c4,582$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea93…5420backed Magic15c4,568$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.31233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x82fe…e95dbacked Knicks60c4,296$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.26580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Magic43c4,295$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84182442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Knicks57c4,251$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.882,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ce…d0eebacked Knicks53c4,227$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.461656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Knicks51c4,125$2,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.331,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…e26cbacked Knicks61c4,100$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5791172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fab…3444backed Magic39c4,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Magic48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.