NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19978342926b9f17ac41c77fa4d76d328e0f8d4a71831d7a5710de9a03e43813

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Magic
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $107,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $133,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,901 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd43c…04e8backed Knicks	49c	26,000$12,740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,260	115	35.7%41 W · 74 L	-12.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Knicks	41c	23,385$9,581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,803.67	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	58c	9,675$5,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,635.77	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic	58c	8,066$4,646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,645.88	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Magic	51c	7,415$3,781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,781.4	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf95…3114backed Knicks	40c	7,000$2,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,200	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd29c…d4efbacked Magic	60c	7,000$4,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,200	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+18%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Magic	59c	6,473$3,819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,818.9	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Magic	61c	5,747$3,503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,502.63	191	36.1%69 W · 122 L	-15.3wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Magic	50c	5,391$2,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,695.62	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks	50c	5,328$2,661 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,667.48	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Knicks	40c	4,092$1,637 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,454.9	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x159f…5862backed Magic	51c	3,784$1,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,929.98	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b8…e3dabacked Magic	60c	3,000$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Magic	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530	189	54.5%103 W · 86 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde19…8e43backed Knicks	40c	3,000$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,800	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+20%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Magic	51c	2,735$1,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,394.94	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Magic	59c	2,578$1,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,524.9	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x934e…e7c0backed Magic	51c	2,549$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks	41c	1,374$563 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$811.46	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks	49c	1,038$513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.58	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Magic	51c	1,001$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.51	74	50%37 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Magic	51c	970.21$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.81	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Knicks	41c	570$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.3	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Knicks	38c	512.34$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.65	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Magic	3c	505$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Magic	62c	451.34$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.83	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	53c	450.15$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.77	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed Magic	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Magic	51c	382.05$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.85	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Knicks	40c	375.37$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.37	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-8.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Magic	57c	291$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.32	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a88…2854backed Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Magic	61c	200$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.95	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Knicks	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe29…1c8fbacked Magic	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Magic	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Magic	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Magic	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Magic	51c	137.25$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Magic	61c	124$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.64	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Magic	60c	116$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.14	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3205…d8ccbacked Knicks	50c	102$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Magic	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Magic	51c	78.9$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Knicks	50c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic	51c	68.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Magic	50c	67.15$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.58	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Knicks	41c	63$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.17	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Magic	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	162	53.1%86 W · 76 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Magic	59c	50.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Magic	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cb…9c55backed Magic	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Knicks	43c	35.09$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c32…bf78backed Knicks	49c	31.63$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.13	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic	51c	31.63$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Magic	62c	27.42$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	48	72.9%35 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event