TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,677 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7104…afefbacked Over50c9,993$5,000 inLost-$5,0003073.3%22 W · 8 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+47.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c5,655$2,800 inWon+$2,854.699,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over51c3,000$1,530 inLost-$1,5301,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…0c2ebacked Under51c2,745$1,400 inWon+$1,345.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d59…778dbacked Under51c2,673$1,363 inWon+$1,309.55771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon+$98033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Under50c1,202$601 inWon+$60115653.8%84 W · 72 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over50c1,191$596 inLost-$595.597047.1%33 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under51c1,044$534 inWon+$510.0652460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Over51c980$500 inLost-$499.848448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under49c219$107 inWon+$111.691,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258c…781bbacked Over50c200$100 inLost-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over40c200$80 inLost-$8035739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under50c154.6$77 inWon+$77.395049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00df…701bbacked Over26c115.38$30 inLost-$30296.9%2 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-80.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under74c115.38$85 inWon+$302,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Over50c100$50 inLost-$5049938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under49c76$37 inWon+$38.761,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over61c57.73$35 inLost-$358446.4%39 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33da…f818backed Under65c50.49$33 inWon+$17.76358.7%37 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Over52c40$21 inLost-$20.812951.9%67 W · 62 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over49c28.53$14 inLost-$13.987048.6%34 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Over51c20$10 inLost-$10.233650.6%170 W · 166 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x123c…e814backed Under51c20$10 inWon+$9.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-72%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.