AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x997010942040f5a7617c5ed6594534eacda41a270156f0368f6b6319103bfd8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $661,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $569,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $661,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8046…0a1bbacked Yes | 70c | 59,019$41,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,602.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed No | 52c | 48,436$25,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,123.3 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…781dbacked Yes | 7c | 28,827$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 2c | 27,855$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.08 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…a0bcbacked Yes | 2c | 23,656$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…c263backed Yes | 1c | 17,723$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.03 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…84d6backed Yes | 14c | 12,530$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…fd78backed No | 13c | 10,390$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,037.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 8,814$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c50…3612backed Yes | 6c | 8,300$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…d13bbacked No | 13c | 7,068$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,131.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 62c | 6,855$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Yes | 4c | 6,167$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…70cfbacked Yes | 2c | 5,935$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 2c | 5,885$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 4c | 5,643$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.17 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 4c | 5,601$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…1d22backed No | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,450 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066d…e6e6backed Yes | 63c | 4,836$3,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…cbb7backed Yes | 7c | 4,404$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 4,250$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.23 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 14c | 4,140$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…bb93backed Yes | 4c | 3,871$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,782$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc630…fbe4backed No | 12c | 3,530$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,369$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0a…4ed6backed Yes | 3c | 3,330$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…bdefbacked Yes | 13c | 3,258$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed Yes | 5c | 3,238$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…5e2dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,216$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,082$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…999fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,019$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,990$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…be8dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,949$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 72c | 2,867$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee3…66afbacked No | 12c | 2,761$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,439.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 3c | 2,671$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,517$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…683cbacked No | 11c | 2,465$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 2c | 2,438$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,412$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 2,372$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.78 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 2,321$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 4c | 2,227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…0ba2backed Yes | 7c | 2,215$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…9c94backed Yes | 5c | 2,212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…b3c4backed Yes | 3c | 2,173$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 2,132$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…d1a0backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes | 3c | 2,043$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…8e10backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,924$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…78aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,905$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 13c | 1,846$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 1c | 1,754$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 12c | 1,739$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.62 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353d…3365backed Yes | 2c | 1,677$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Yes | 7c | 1,600$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,588$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc6…ac11backed Yes | 6c | 1,586$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…8e8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,578$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…12dfbacked No | 12c | 1,443$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 1,400$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…3760backed No | 14c | 1,388$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +264.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8197…5540backed Yes | 4c | 1,267$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…d3e2backed Yes | 7c | 1,263$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…e116backed Yes | 5c | 1,212$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes | 13c | 1,184$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…484cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 63c | 1,125$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.25 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,100$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,077$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8b…529cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,077$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b0…ce9ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,071$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 20c | 1,070$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,035$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 60c | 1,008$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.01 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 12c | 983.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.19 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…0cbebacked Yes | 5c | 967.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed Yes | 4c | 929.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked No | 12c | 902.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…9782backed Yes | 3c | 875$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 7c | 857.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…8dfbbacked No | 12c | 853.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ad…9a6dbacked No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bd…1b90backed Yes | 9c | 786.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…9579backed Yes | 6c | 776.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c5e2backed Yes | 3c | 759.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…a48dbacked Yes | 5c | 740.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…82eebacked No | 14c | 733.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 11c | 719.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed No | 14c | 718.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf2…c3b7backed Yes | 4c | 716.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?this page
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?Yes won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.