TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb9f2…0c24

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Israel strike 1 country in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$498.21
Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$498.99
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$188.62
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 15 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.85
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 14 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 13 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$84
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Israel strikes Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Houthi strike on Israel before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$508.48
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$1,325.58
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,525
Israel military action against Iraq by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,419Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,419.04
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,624Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+40%+$1,448.62
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+28.2%+$8.46
Warriors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Bucks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+26.6%+$7.98
Hornets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Spurs vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Clippers vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+47.1%+$14.4
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+38.9%+$11.76
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+88.7%+$13.3
Spread: Bucks (-9.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+69.5%+$10.66
Spread: Raptors (-9.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+66.7%+$10
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+85.2%+$12.78
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$93.76
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Lakers vs. Hawksbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+75.4%+$37.72
Rockets vs. Grizzliesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+35.1%+$35.14
Jazz vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+26.6%+$26.67
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+248.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+38.9%+$38.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+29.9%+$8.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.