NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb115846a37d6a6a0ad29080c5ba981e4a8ac87eb9c3f94be79f6103e9ce4f4bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Bucks | 58c | 17,377$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,377.5 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 43c | 9,768$4,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,177.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Bucks | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.99 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets | 42c | 3,750$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nets | 43c | 2,497$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.8 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 42c | 2,307$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bucks | 56c | 1,956$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.21 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nets | 45c | 1,773$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.85 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nets | 42c | 1,700$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Nets | 51c | 1,389$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.25 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 45c | 766$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.44 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 42c | 733$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nets | 43c | 429.14$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.95 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Bucks | 59c | 376.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.27 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Nets | 41c | 376.27$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.27 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Bucks | 54c | 370$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.5 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bucks | 57c | 239.13$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Bucks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Bucks | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Bucks | 56c | 99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Bucks | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Bucks | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Bucks | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…184cbacked Bucks | 58c | 74.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…aebabacked Bucks | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Bucks | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…f00ebacked Bucks | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b1…f012backed Bucks | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…5f80backed Bucks | 58c | 36.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…1b1abacked Nets | 44c | 28.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Bucks | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Bucks | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)this page
- Nets vs. BucksBucks won
- Nets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.