NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24524e8a0bebcd9c87ec7999d45040fa6f9046d40529319126d58f457c030232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $242,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Nets | 52c | 95,389$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Bucks | 50c | 74,370$37,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,225.25 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Nets | 50c | 69,627$35,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,106.03 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Bucks | 47c | 32,027$15,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,974.16 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Bucks | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bucks | 50c | 15,068$7,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,565.71 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 47c | 10,080$4,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,342.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Bucks | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 48c | 7,536$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,935.12 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nets | 53c | 6,058$3,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,210.66 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 51c | 5,715$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Bucks | 49c | 5,273$2,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.99 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Bucks | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Bucks | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 48c | 3,750$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Bucks | 47c | 3,325$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.25 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Bucks | 49c | 2,220$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.36 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a9…676ebacked Bucks | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…0706backed Nets | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd9…fe8dbacked Nets | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…cd76backed Bucks | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Bucks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…2002backed Nets | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…103dbacked Bucks | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…e220backed Bucks | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 48c | 1,254$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.08 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks | 47c | 1,170$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.1 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 50c | 1,002$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.01 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 49c | 822.02$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Bucks | 48c | 654.17$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.17 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Bucks | 49c | 501$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.52 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nets | 51c | 474$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Nets | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Nets | 51c | 455.53$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.32 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 48c | 409$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bucks | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bucks | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 49c | 274.6$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Bucks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Nets | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 48c | 192$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bucks | 47c | 189.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Bucks | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Nets | 54c | 124.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Nets | 56c | 116.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Bucks | 49c | 112.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Bucks | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Bucks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Bucks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Nets | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bucks | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Nets | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Bucks | 51c | 59.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nets | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Nets | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Nets | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Nets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Bucks | 49c | 40.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Nets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Nets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Bucks | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Nets | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Nets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Bucks | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)this page
- Nets vs. BucksBucks won
- Nets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.