NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f82f127e0f398f1ff567da58c9b914ead2dfbf312c69ae71666ac26d5db87e

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Bucks, Nets
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,129 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x245b…00c5backed Nets	46c	5,903$2,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,718.61	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	48c	5,019$2,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,430.27	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Nets	47c	3,986$1,873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,873.42	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks	53c	3,774$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,773.58	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bucks	52c	3,400$1,768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,632	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks	53c	2,500$1,325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,175	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks	53c	2,064$1,094 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$970.16	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets	47c	1,583$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.6	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks	52c	1,382$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$657.22	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Bucks	50c	1,336$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$667.76	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Bucks	46c	1,215$559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$656.21	240	48.3%116 W · 124 L	-13.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Bucks	53c	940$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.8	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Nets	47c	600$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Bucks	57c	528.36$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.36	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Nets	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bucks	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nets	46c	499.97$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.99	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Nets	48c	415.08$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	271	61.3%166 W · 105 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…32a5backed Bucks	51c	210.04$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.92	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Bucks	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	237	48.1%114 W · 123 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Bucks	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed Bucks	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Bucks	51c	133.55$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.02	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Bucks	54c	129.37$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.37	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nets	48c	124.74$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.3	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Bucks	50c	109.84$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.84	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Nets	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Bucks	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Bucks	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Nets	45c	99.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.99	266	51.1%136 W · 130 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Nets	49c	98.5$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.27	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Bucks	51c	96$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.04	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b0…dd06backed Nets	49c	96$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.04	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nets	47c	79.04$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks	52c	73.52$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.51	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nets	50c	57.63$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1206…eaeebacked Bucks	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Nets	46c	29.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nets	48c	22.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bucks	54c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.12	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0141…7df4backed Bucks	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.27per pick	50cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Bucks	67c	15.05$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.99	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bucks (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event