NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfb2fa1a8355e7d1b9be2b0bc7414ea63663b23f9d04cc88a61bc62d4f01b6fa

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,484 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked Under	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,000	596	53.4%318 W · 278 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Under	52c	14,714$7,712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,002.47	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over	50c	14,056$7,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,027.01	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	13,543$6,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,592.81	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	48c	2,806$1,347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,346.99	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under	52c	2,073$1,078 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$995.04	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	47c	2,009$944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$944.42	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Under	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940	199	37.2%74 W · 125 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over	48c	1,061$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.17	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	50c	1,004$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	53c	943.4$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over	49c	397.96$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	50c	356$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Over	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f91…7c76backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	98	52%51 W · 47 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2025…129ebacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8992…4c76backed Under	53c	92.72$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.22	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	46c	91.67$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.17	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf03d…b035backed Under	53c	55.71$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.01	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Over	49c	46.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ead…16d3backed Over	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	45.7$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.31	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad7…6574backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…79c2backed Over	50c	40.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa709…8d1dbacked Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	55.1%49 W · 40 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	49c	39.22$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…ed59backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab72…eae9backed Under	54c	37.27$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.27	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+4.2wins	+0.23per pick	49cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Under	52c	32.15$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.43	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	45c	27.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x586d…c5dcbacked Over	47c	23.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event