TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x137b…2fd5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: CS2, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 57 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST1942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Hawaii (-7.5)backed Hawaii · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Spread: UNLV (-7.5)backed UNLV · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Spread: Alabama (-6.5)backed Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$254.8
Alabama vs. Auburnbacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$83.8
North Carolina vs. NC Statebacked North Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$11.6
Spread: Washington State (-13.5)backed Oregon State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$38.2
Spread: UTSA Roadrunners (-7.5)backed UTSA Roadrunners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Spread: Southern Miss (-6.5)backed Troy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+100%+$20
Spread: Texas State (-9.5)backed South Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Spread: Toledo (-10.5)backed Central Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Spread: South Carolina (-2.5)backed Clemson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Spread: Miami (-6.5)backed Pittsburgh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Texas A&M vs. Texasbacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+127.3%+$56
O/U 55.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+100%+$50
Spread: Utah (-10.5)backed Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$49
Spread: Iowa (-6.5)backed Iowa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+106.9%+$154.99
Iowa vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$195
O/U 62.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$101
Spread: Ole Miss (-7.5)backed Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+104.1%+$102
All 19 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)backed Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,080
Broncos vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$34.2
Raiders vs. Chargersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$19.4
Spread: Chargers (-9.5)backed Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Vikings vs. Seahawksbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$29.55
Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)backed Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$18.8
Falcons vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+138.1%+$23.2
Texans vs. Coltsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+156.4%+$61
Spread: Dolphins (-5.5)backed Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10
49ers vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$73.6
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$19.6
Cardinals vs. Buccaneersbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$44.4
Bears vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+96.1%+$9.8
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Hawks vs. 76ersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+119.8%+$21.8
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$16.4
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$25.4
Spread: Bucks (-11.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$92
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Raptors vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+277.4%+$29.4
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Cavaliers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+203%+$67
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-11-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+96.1%+$9.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+201.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+201.2%+$66.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+79.9%+$24.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$16.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.