College Football · resolved market
Spread: UTSA Roadrunners (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39078ad454a5ea4b2b746eabf5158041f32551a17261765116e8ea597fb6105d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Armyof UTSA Roadrunners, Army
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed UTSA Roadrunners | 50c | 61,122$30,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,561.13 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Army | 50c | 34,000$17,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,000 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Army | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed UTSA Roadrunners | 50c | 20,258$10,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,128.87 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 50c | 15,957$7,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,996 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…c0bebacked Army | 50c | 10,785$5,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,392.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Army | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Army | 49c | 7,255$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700.05 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Army | 50c | 5,912$2,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,975.19 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Army | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UTSA Roadrunners | 49c | 4,343$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.27 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UTSA Roadrunners | 50c | 3,738$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.04 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Army | 50c | 3,727$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.5 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Army | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Army | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed UTSA Roadrunners | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Army | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 50c | 753.57$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.08 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Army | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Army | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed UTSA Roadrunners | 50c | 264$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…fd45backed Army | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Army | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2f38backed Army | 50c | 186.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Army | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Army | 48c | 165.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Army | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Army | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked UTSA Roadrunners | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed UTSA Roadrunners | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76c…0206backed Army | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Army | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5f…afbfbacked Army | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…dbf8backed UTSA Roadrunners | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed UTSA Roadrunners | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Army | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 45cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UTSA Roadrunners (-7.5)this page
- Army vs. UTSA RoadrunnersArmy won
- Spread: UTSA Roadrunners (-6.5)Army won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.