TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd368…1889

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
222
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: CS2, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 52 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST13842%58 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 138 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+40.2%+$57.3
Will Baker Mayfield win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$253.48
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Spread: Rams (-7.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$86.33
Rams vs. Falconsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.53
Giants vs. Raidersbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+80.8%+$38.83
Saints vs. Titansbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+96.1%+$22.05
Jaguars vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$37.5
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)backed Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$31.84
Patriots vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Spread: Steelers (-4.5)backed Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+92.3%+$24
Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+104.1%+$20.4
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)backed Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+81.8%+$13.5
Vikings vs. Cowboysbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+230%+$27.88
Lions vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+42.9%+$10.71
Spread: 49ers (-12.5)backed Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$29.4
Panthers vs. Saintsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+127.3%+$30.43
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$28.05
Cardinals vs. Texansbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20.7
Browns vs. Bears: O/U 40.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$14.52
Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 39.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$11.7
Will the Colts sign Phillip Rivers?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$176.59
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+127.3%+$21.28
Broncos vs. Raidersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Showing 25 of 138 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST6241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 52.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$16.1
California vs. Hawaiibacked Hawaii · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+96.1%+$27.96
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Missbacked Southern Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Spread: Washington (-9.5)backed Boise State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$101.3
Boise State vs. Washingtonbacked Boise State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$62.5
Spread: Navy (-6.5)backed Navy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Spread: Virginia (-3.5)backed Virginia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$255.5
Georgia vs. Alabamabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$150.4
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-12.5)backed BYU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
North Texas vs. Tulanebacked North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$280.9
Spread: Washington State (-13.5)backed Washington State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+92.3%+$144
Louisiana Tech vs. Missouri Statebacked Missouri State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$258.16
Spread: Oregon (-7.5)backed Washington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$164.4
Spread: UTSA Roadrunners (-7.5)backed Army · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+100%+$225
Spread: Missouri (-3.5)backed Missouri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+81.8%+$40.5
Spread: Florida International (-10.5)backed Sam Houston Bearkats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$235
Clemson vs. South Carolinabacked South Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$189.15
Ohio State vs. Michiganbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$52.8
Miami vs. Pittsburghbacked Pittsburgh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$180.2
Arizona vs. Arizona Statebacked Arizona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+88.7%+$199.75
Spread: Indiana (-28.5)backed Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$177.85
Boise State vs. Utah Statebacked Utah State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$190.9
San Diego State vs. New Mexicobacked New Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+104.1%+$229.5
O/U 62.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+100.8%+$188.25
Spread: BYU (-2.5)backed BYU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+96.1%+$220.5
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$301.33
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$21.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+112.8%+$34.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)backed Eintracht Frankfurt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+96.1%+$72.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,037Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$958.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Schnell vs. Moralesbacked Schnell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group A: Learner Tien vs Rafael Jodarbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$23.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.