College Football · resolved market
Spread: Missouri (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x415271257da88d29a1020fb24055e7cc05a3bfe455cdc2e72c506e2606fb764f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouriof Missouri, Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Missouri | 54c | 31,053$16,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,405.65 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas | 47c | 16,110$7,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,573.44 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas | 46c | 15,165$6,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,975.9 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Missouri | 51c | 4,947$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,427.28 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Missouri | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas | 46c | 3,089$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.92 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Arkansas | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Arkansas | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas | 46c | 1,877$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.39 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Missouri | 54c | 1,750$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Arkansas | 49c | 1,120$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Missouri | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Missouri | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.05 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Arkansas | 48c | 490$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.37 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Arkansas | 46c | 479$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Arkansas | 45c | 448.64$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Arkansas | 46c | 432.61$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arkansas | 46c | 383.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Missouri | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arkansas | 50c | 223.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Arkansas | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Missouri | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Missouri | 54c | 175$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Missouri | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Arkansas | 45c | 115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Arkansas | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…4a49backed Arkansas | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Arkansas | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Missouri | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Missouri | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Missouri | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Arkansas | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Arkansas | 47c | 49.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Arkansas | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57a…add6backed Missouri | 55c | 23.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Missouri | 52c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Arkansas | 48c | 21.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri (-3.5)this page
- Missouri vs. ArkansasMissouri won
- Missouri vs. Arkansas: O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri (-2.5)Missouri won
- Spread: Missouri (-4.5)Missouri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.