College Football · resolved market
Spread: Missouri (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe97dcbfeb13556ce5225148a1b65e47d2c306fe667b8a816b56ba0f2305264
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouriof Missouri, Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Missouri | 51c | 17,835$9,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,739.13 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Arkansas | 50c | 12,500$6,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,215 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Missouri | 50c | 11,341$5,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,670.5 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas | 49c | 10,702$5,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,241.92 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Arkansas | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas | 50c | 1,875$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.5 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Arkansas | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Missouri | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…8152backed Missouri | 51c | 499.96$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Arkansas | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Arkansas | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri | 49c | 235.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Missouri | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Arkansas | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Arkansas | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Missouri | 70c | 32.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Arkansas | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri (-4.5)this page
- Missouri vs. ArkansasMissouri won
- Missouri vs. Arkansas: O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri (-2.5)Missouri won
- Spread: Missouri (-3.5)Missouri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.