TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x56e4…92bb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 58 out of 100; worst MLB at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT4042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+227.6%+$936.04
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$131
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$105.18
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$78
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$835Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$835
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$77.33
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$187
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$45
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$61.92
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+150%+$166.6
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$69.49
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$154.55
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Hornets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+29.9%+$26.88
Spread: Raptors (-6.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mack Hollins: Anytime Touchdownbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+378.3%+$121.01
Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime Touchdownbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+138.1%+$35.9
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$88.71
Giants vs. Lionsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$24.36
Spread: Lions (-11.5)backed Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$171.65
Bills vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+31.6%+$52.95
Spread: Packers (-6.5)backed Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+77.1%+$169.72
Spread: Broncos (-8.5)backed Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+100%+$21
Bears vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Broncos vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Spread: Lions (-8.5)backed Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+96.1%+$20.18
Falcons vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+47.1%+$19.76
Spread: Chargers (-9.5)backed Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Packers vs. Cardinalsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$75.79
Spread: Packers (-7.5)backed Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Panthers vs. Jetsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+100%+$207
Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$24
Bengals vs. Packers: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$38.13
Spread: Steelers (-4.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$30.18
Cardinals vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$31.58
All 21 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
College Football — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-50.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.3
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$777Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+86.8%+$674.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$88.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Rangersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+29.9%+$16.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.