NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4ce282811b7338a93048f3f50c087b03a35f486edb19a8e7522a1291fe9aa9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Lions, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Lions | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Giants | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 41c | 4,792$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,835.15 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lions | 56c | 4,284$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.38 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Giants | 41c | 2,970$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.41 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Lions | 60c | 1,687$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Giants | 47c | 1,280$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.46 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed Lions | 60c | 1,157$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions | 53c | 944.9$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Giants | 45c | 803$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.65 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…fe7bbacked Lions | 56c | 359.52$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.12 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Lions | 55c | 312.09$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.65 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Giants | 44c | 279.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.53 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Giants | 45c | 225$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Lions | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Giants | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Lions | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Giants | 45c | 144.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Giants | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Lions | 53c | 109.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Giants | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Giants | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Giants | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Lions | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Giants | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…2ed2backed Lions | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-11.5)this page
- Giants vs. LionsLions won
- Giants vs. Lions: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 48.5Over won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 49.5Over won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-12.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-14.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.