NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab38d765afa79646f6a46c9eed04417cb832917ee103c4784826473afe5695ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Lions, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Giants | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.84 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lions | 53c | 1,753$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.09 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lions | 52c | 718.08$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.4 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Giants | 48c | 556.58$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.42 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Lions | 57c | 476.33$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.51 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Giants | 43c | 474$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.18 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Lions | 53c | 415$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.95 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Giants | 46c | 278.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Giants | 48c | 215.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Giants | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Lions | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Lions | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 47c | 90.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Lions | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…c942backed Lions | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Lions | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Lions | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Giants | 41c | 42.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x658a…3b89backed Lions | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Giants | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Lions | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Lions | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-12.5)this page
- Giants vs. LionsLions won
- Giants vs. Lions: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 48.5Over won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 49.5Over won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-11.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-13.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-14.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.