NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fde3d5e47bdfad82ff41826c343f4a5b80bd1ff3c5896acd93f2b1696a8711a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Lions, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Lions | 53c | 61,284$32,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,362.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Giants | 47c | 42,100$19,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,313 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Lions | 54c | 22,908$12,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,452.69 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 47c | 21,655$10,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,458.59 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Lions | 50c | 15,461$7,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,733.17 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Giants | 48c | 14,983$7,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,741.33 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Giants | 50c | 10,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,050 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Giants | 45c | 9,492$4,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,220.76 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Giants | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lions | 51c | 5,928$3,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.06 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lions | 51c | 4,850$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.75 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Giants | 46c | 4,200$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Lions | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Lions | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.83 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Lions | 51c | 2,415$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.65 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Giants | 49c | 2,211$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.46 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Giants | 50c | 1,484$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Giants | 48c | 1,330$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.81 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Giants | 46c | 1,206$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.19 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Giants | 49c | 1,113$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.08 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Lions | 53c | 1,079$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Lions | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…6b98backed Lions | 56c | 897.77$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Lions | 55c | 850$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.5 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Giants | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Giants | 47c | 612.32$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.36 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Giants | 45c | 521.67$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.92 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Giants | 49c | 413$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Giants | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Lions | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Giants | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Giants | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Lions | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b2…1e54backed Giants | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 45c | 132.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Giants | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Giants | 44c | 119.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Giants | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Giants | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Lions | 50c | 99.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Lions | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Giants | 46c | 75.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…a85ebacked Lions | 54c | 75.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Giants | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…0adebacked Giants | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Lions | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Giants | 46c | 49.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2356…ddf5backed Giants | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Lions | 53c | 37.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…a45ebacked Lions | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Giants | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…b85cbacked Lions | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Lions | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Giants | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Lions | 53c | 18.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-13.5)this page
- Giants vs. LionsLions won
- Giants vs. Lions: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 48.5Over won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 49.5Over won
- Giants vs. Lions: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-11.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-12.5)Giants won
- Spread: Lions (-14.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.