NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d2de3d8acc7b2cc8d8aa1294be2fe895314976a4356aa7ebd1687d44bf7568a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Packers, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Packers | 46c | 100,000$46,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,237.4 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Cardinals | 54c | 70,531$38,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,488.96 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Packers | 55c | 53,339$29,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,489.09 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Cardinals | 54c | 40,000$21,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,400 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…0ad1backed Packers | 46c | 34,500$15,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,870 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Packers | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,199.99 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cardinals | 54c | 19,922$10,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,164.29 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Cardinals | 53c | 17,685$9,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,312.12 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Cardinals | 9c | 9,999$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,099.09 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +12.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cardinals | 53c | 9,886$5,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,648.27 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 54c | 8,848$4,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,111.7 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Cardinals | 55c | 7,084$3,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.8 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Cardinals | 55c | 3,881$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.93 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cardinals | 53c | 3,667$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.62 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cardinals | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Cardinals | 54c | 2,107$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.23 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Packers | 45c | 1,888$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.57 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cardinals | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.99 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Cardinals | 54c | 1,437$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.3 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 53c | 1,418$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.04 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Cardinals | 54c | 1,127$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.42 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cardinals | 53c | 1,017$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.8 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Cardinals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Cardinals | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Cardinals | 2c | 906$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +889.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Cardinals | 55c | 730$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cardinals | 54c | 548.81$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.45 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Cardinals | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Cardinals | 54c | 434.79$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Packers | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cardinals | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cardinals | 55c | 171$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Packers | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cardinals | 54c | 142$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Packers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Cardinals | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Cardinals | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Packers | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Packers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Packers | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Cardinals | 54c | 75.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Cardinals | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Cardinals | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cardinals | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Packers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cardinals | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Packers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…796abacked Packers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…7b41backed Cardinals | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cardinals | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…ff19backed Cardinals | 55c | 30.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Cardinals | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Cardinals | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…d6d7backed Cardinals | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)this page
- Packers vs. CardinalsPackers won
- Packers vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cardinals: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-5.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.